Thursday, May 07, 2009

The Brutal Burden of Student Loans


(In bankruptcy jargon, student loans are non-secured, non-dischargeable debt. Listen to this great podcast with Todd Zywicki for more on this.)

Will student loans be the next bubble to burst? Whether or not it is, they certainly seem to be saddling a large number of college graduates with debt that will continue to trail them for many years. On an individual level, something that makes student loans more pernicious than credit cards or mortgage debt is that they are loans you can never walk away from.

I think they’re the worst debt you can get — huge, at unattractive interest rates, and non-bankruptable.

“Perhaps seduced by the idea of graduating from a well-respected university, many students tend to overlook the consequences of graduating with debts that are likely to far exceed their starting salaries. And as many borrowers have learned, student loans are among the most ironclad debts, on par with child support, alimony and overdue taxes. They stick with you no matter what.”
I discourage students from borrowing, but as more people look at the results, we may see a lot of pressure on higher education, where overly-high tuitions have been propped up by easy credit taken out by people who don’t really know what they’re getting into, and who universities aren’t eager to educate on that subject. This quotation suggests that people are catching on:

“You often hear the quote that you can’t put a price on ignorance,” said Ezra Kazee, who has $29,000 in student debt and has been unable to find a job since graduating from Winona State University in Minnesota last May. “But with the way higher education is going, ignorance is looking more and more affordable every day.”

It’s also worth noting that when it comes to consumer exploitation, higher education has no room to strike moral poses vis-a-vis the for-profit sector.

Here is more from the NYT article linked to in this post:

The most recent default rate on federal loans was 6.9 percent, the highest rate since 1998, according to preliminary data from the Education Department. But this statistic illustrates only a piece of the picture. It tracks only the students who started to repay their loans between October 2006 and Sept. 30, 2007, but who had defaulted by September 2008. And it doesn’t include loans in deferment or forbearance even though those borrowers are unable to make payments. Nor does it include loans not backed by the government...

Bankruptcy usually doesn’t provide relief, except in the most dire of circumstances. Even death isn’t a good enough excuse for discharging some private loan debts. And the government can wield a heavy hand to collect what it is due: If you fail to repay your federal loans, it can garnish up to 15 percent of your wages or take your tax refund or part of your Social Security benefits.

I have written frequently on the dangers of too much debt and about balancing expected salaries against debt loads when considering student loans. What makes student loans particularly bad is that they are given to young people who typically have had no previous experience managing large (or small) levels of debt, have shorter time preferences than they may have later in life, and who have a large degree of uncertainty (whether they realize it or not) about what their future financial situation will be.

To get a feel for how prevalent this issue is, here are some statistics from FinAid.org:

The following table shows the percentage of students borrowing and average cumulative debt per borrower (excluding PLUS Loans) according to type of educational institution.


Undergraduate Education Debt
Institution Level & Control Percent Borrowing Cumulative Debt
Overall Total (4, 2 and <> 55.5% $15,766
4-year Total 65.6% $19,202
4-year Public 61.7% $17,277
4-year Private Non-Profit 72.8% $21,957
4-year Private For-Profit 87.3% $28,138
2-year Total 37.4% $9,897
2-year Public 33.2% $9,387
2-year Private Non-Profit 69.1% $12,326
2-year Private For-Profit 90.0% $12,107

Graduate and professional students borrow even more, with the additional debt for a graduate degree ranging from $27,000 to $114,000. The following table shows the percentage borrowing and average amount of cumulative debt per borrower among graduating students according to degree program. It provides the amounts borrowed for just the graduate education and also the combined totals for undergraduate and graduate education.


Graduate Education Debt All Education Debt
(Grad & Undergrad)
Graduate & Professional Degree Programs Percent Borrowing Cumulative Debt Percent Borrowing Cumulative Debt
Total 60.1% $37,067 70.1% $42,406
Master's Degree 58.4% $26,895 69.3% $32,858
Doctoral Degree 51.0% $49,007 58.3% $53,405
Professional Degree 86.5% $82,688 88.4% $93,134
MBA 53.0% $35,525 63.6% $41,687
MSW 76.5% $27,136 81.0% $37,029
PhD 40.0% $36,917 46.8% $41,540
EdD 53.4% $49,050 65.7% $47,725
Law (LLB or JD) 87.7% $70,933 89.7% $80,754
Medicine 95.0% $113,661 95.0% $125,819

Student debt is not always a bad thing -- if it is held within a reasonable level (say below 50% of your expected income after graduation) and as long as it is helping either increase your income or has a reasonable expectation of helping to get a job that helps give greater life satisfaction. What is so troubling about these statistics is the level of debt so many students (particularly doctors and lawyers) get into. I don't know too much about the expected salaries in the medical field, but am familiar with those in the legal field. With the exception of those making a career in a big law firm, these levels of debt are potentially disastrous.

It is also troubling to see that the cumulative debt levels for those pursuing MSW degrees are nearly the same as those pursuing MBAs. (With a much higher percentage of MSW students borrowing.) From a financial perspective, not all degrees are created equal and the expected payoff for an MBA is likely much higher than that of an MSW.

The housing market is now a mess because the value of home ownership was oversold and easy credit was made available to far too many people who would not normally qualify for these types of loans. I am afraid the same thing is occurring in higher-education. Unfortunately, rather than learning lessons from the housing market and encouraging restraint when considering college and its expenses, too many people advocate for all people to go to college (often overselling its value at the margin) and politicians seek to make student loans more accessible to those who would normally not qualify. My fear is that we will soon have a generation stuck with paying off not only the debts of all the government spending that is currently going on, but also stuck paying-off non-dischargeable student loans for a good portion of their adult lives.

Read my previous posts:

When Will Women Become a Work-Force Majority?

"It is possible that, for the first time in American history, women will make up a majority of the labor force late this summer."

Inflation or Deflation?



(HT Greg Mankiw)

The Panasonic Limux DMC-GH1



Now this just looks cool.
It's been a long, winding road to get to this point, but we've finally got Panasonic coming clean and telling us a little of what we already knew and lots of stuff we didn't regarding its Lumix DMC-GH1. The hotly anticipated Micro Four Thirds shooter is indeed getting priced at $1,499.95 when it lands in the US in "early June," and that MSRP will include the LUMIX G VARIO 14-140mm/F4.0-5.8 ASPH/MEGA O.I.S. lens. Speaking of the lens, it'll boast a silent motor and continuous auto focusing (AF) capability for HD video, a feature that's sorely (sorely!) lacking from video-capable DSLRs. The cam will ship only in black and will capture video in AVCHD 1080p/24p (or 720p/60p) form, and Panny also tells us that users can adjust shutter speed and control aperture during motion recording. Can you say: "want?"

Read.
For those not familiar with these cameras, the "Micro Four Thirds" means this camera is much smaller than traditional SLRs -- great for travel. And that 14-140 lens would probably be all the lens I would ever need. Coupled with HD video with continuous autofoucs and silent motor, this looks like a very cool camera indeed.

The Daily Dozen

  1. Global temperatures driven by US Postal charges?
  2. What's up with Chinese people having English names?
  3. How to take self-portraits with your digital camera.
  4. Lab on a chip detects and identifies specific malarial strains.
  5. More than one in five homeowners underwater according to Zillow. OUCH! The Wall Street Journal has more.
  6. Thomas Sowell: Empathy vs. Law.
  7. Apple customer satisfaction -- it's the experience. "From the quality of the packaging to booting OS X, Apple makes owning a Mac a different experience from just owning a computer. One of the most important aspects of owning a Mac is the quality of the construction." This corresponds with what my Mac-owning friends have told me.
  8. Multitasking does not work. "In Rapt, acclaimed behavioral science writer Winifred Gallagher makes the radical argument that the quality of your life largely depends on what you choose to pay attention to and how you choose to do it. ... "
  9. The disappearing male teacher? I always wanted to become a teacher. (At least fourth generation in my family to do so.) The more I learned about teaching in public schools, however, the more I wanted to teach at a college instead.
  10. A smarter way to search for what ails you. Software searches through medical information by analyzing the structure of sentences in a new way.
  11. As I mentioned earlier, Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok have a new book out on Macroeconomics. Here is how it is different.
  12. Quote of the Day: "Even in a recession, the world gets more beautiful every day. This is the greatest time in human history to be curious." -- Russ Roberts

Hover cat flies low

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Wednesday, May 06, 2009

The Kindle DX

Amazon has posted the new Kindle DX, selling it for $489. No delivery date as yet. As expected (and hoped), it has a bulit-in PDF reader.

Here are a few highlights of the new device:
  • A 9.7-inch display -- twice the size and resolution (1200 x 824 pixels at 150 ppi), 16-level grey scale.
  • Size: 10.4" x 7.2" x 0.38".
  • Weight: 18.9 ounces.
  • Built-in PDF support for complex documents. This alone might sell it for me. Having a Kindle 2 has allowed me to always have reading material with me at almost all times. This translates into me reading more. than I did before. Being able to do this with academic articles would be a godsend for me and make it worth every penny. Hopefully this will support textbooks too.
  • There is only 4GB of internal memory (3.3 GB available for user content) with no ability to expand with SD cards. I think the lack of expandability is a poor decision on Amazon's part. Complex documents will take up much more memory than what is typically used on the "regular" Kindle.
  • It looks like it has the same hook-and-latch feature to connect it to hinged covers as the Kindle 2. I love this feature. Here is the cover Amazon is selling for the Kindle DX. I'm sure other companies such as M-Edge will make cases for it as well.
  • The screen will auto-rotate to landscape mode if you physically rotate the Kindle.
Overall, this looks like some great improvements for students and those in business alike. The PDF reader is what I've been longing for in an eBook reader for a long time now. I'll wait for reviews of it to come out, but if it works well for PDFs, I will be sorely tempted to buy one.

Endgaget was liveblogging Amazon's announcement this morning and included this shot comparing the sizes of the Kindle DX and Kindle 2.



P.S. -- Gizmodo has some first hands-on impressions:

The screen looks the same, but somehow, proportionally beautiful. The screen is significantly better looking in terms of overall ratio between screen and non screen. The keyboard is about 10 percent of the overall device, where the older versions felt more like 20%. I like it, but doubt I would want to bring this on a trip or use it in bed to read. It clearly is a work device, meant for displaying 8.5x11-inch type docs. The screen refresh rates are the same—as fast as Kindle 2. But it is more contrasty and faster by 20% they say, compared to generation one.

Despite the added size, it feels like the chassis is pretty rigid, thanks to the aluminum back (same design as the Kindle 2.) The name, Kindle DX, stands for Kindle Deluxe.

The device is heavier, almost twice as much (10 to 18 ounces).

Flipping to widescreen takes about 3 seconds to trigger and refresh the e-ink display, but its very much like an iPhone's accelerometer based screen orientation sensing.

Engadget has some hands-on photos.

P.P.S. -- Here is a list of textbook publishers Amazon has agreements with:

In terms of textbooks, agreements with 3 big publishers and coverage of 60% of textbooks -

  1. Perason.
  2. Addison Wiley
  3. Longman
  4. Prentice Hall
  5. Cengage Learning
  6. Allyn & Bacon
  7. Benjamin Cummings
  8. Wadsworth
  9. Brooks Cole
  10. Course TEchnology
  11. Delmar
  12. Heinle
  13. Schermer
  14. South-Western

That’s a pretty impressive list.

Indeed it is. Unfortunately, this will probably come out too late for me to try it out in the Macroeconomics class I'm teaching this summer.

Trekkies Bash New Star Trek Film As 'Fun, Watchable'


Trekkies Bash New Star Trek Film As 'Fun, Watchable'

The Daily Dozen

  1. Life is a trial for Chinese lawyer. A reminder to be grateful for the the liberties, rights, and rule of law we enjoy in the US. They are rare among the world and among history.
  2. The economic argument for taxing only labor income?
  3. Posner's anxiety, Cardozo's influence.
  4. FTC (my former employer) may force end to Google-Apple love affair?
  5. Fixing lungs outside the body. A technique may double the number of lungs available for transplant.
  6. A theory of good teaching. It requires at least three things: 1) expertise; 2) teaching tools; and 3) interactions. I am taking notes as I will be teaching macroeconomics this summer. Here are thoughts on the moral obligation to teach well.
  7. First, blame the regulators? The financial crisis wasn't a problem of regulatory failure, but of regulatory corruption?
  8. Why is this bubble different from all other bubbles? "James Surowiecki has a very interesting column arguing that this bubble was different because unlike the earlier banking booms, there was no point to the wild spending. The bubble didn't bring us railroads and electrification; it brought us . . . houses. Lots and lots and lots of houses."
  9. Making the world a better place? "Remove economists from the planet." Somehow, I don't think that would improve my world.
  10. The importance of economic growth. "In the United States, diarrhea is a pain, an annoyance, and of course an embarrassment. In much of the developing world, diarrhea is a killer, especially of children. Every year 1.8 million children die from diarrhea. Ending the premature deaths of these children does not require any scientific breakthroughs, nor does it require new drugs or fancy medical devices. Preventing these deaths requires only one thing: economic growth." It's literally a matter of life and death.
  11. The essentials of the credit crisis.
  12. Americans stop getting taller. "Unlike most other developed countries, in the United States men and women aged 20 to 24 are no taller than those aged 45 to 49 years old." That's because we were already tall relative to many other developed countries.

even thought he knew better...

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More Details on Amazon's New Kindle Announcement



Supposedly the new Kindle will have a 9.7-inch display, support PDF files (something I've been wanting for a long time), and have a better built-in browser. The press event is scheduled for 10:30 AM EST today.
The upcoming Kindle, now known as the Kindle DX, will pack a full-featured 9.7-inch electronic ink display, 5-way navigation button and a QWERTY keyboard into its large white housing. It basically looks like the designers took a Kindle 2 and stretched its screen from 6 inches to 9.7 inches, and then squished the keyboard in the process.

The new Kindle DX will reportedly feature an improved web browser, the ability to add annotations in addition to notes and highlights and a long awaited native PDF reader. In addition to newspaper and periodicals, the Kindle DX is designed to support textbooks and, according to the Wall Street Journal, a special edition packed with pre-installed textbooks for chemistry, computer science and a freshman seminar is being released as part of a college trial.
More details in the Wall Street Journal. James Kendrick also shares his thoughts.

Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Priceless!

Tickets to see "Monsters vs. Aliens"... 9 dollars. Picture of Aunt Ruth wearing 3-D glasses... PRICELESS!

The Daily Dozen

  1. A larger Kindle could be released as early as this week? I was skeptical when I first read this, but then read this post and these photos on Endgadget. Rumors are it will include PDF support. If so (and PDF rendering is good), I may have to upgrade.
  2. The best entrepreneurs know how to fail fast.
  3. Will the bad economic environment lead to more dating violence -- by both sexes?
  4. Law firms: The long awaited adjustment to associate pay. Now those poor people will start out at only $145,000?
  5. "Masonomics" in a nutshell: 1) Incentives matter; 2) signaling matters; 3) institutions matter; and 4) evolution matters.
  6. A new look at old demographic myths. "Martin Walker of the Woodrow Wilson Center describes some surprising demographic trends. Contrary to popular belief, birth rates have risen in northern Europe and the United States in recent years and fallen across much of Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. In fact, the fertility rate in the United States is at its highest level since 1971. In contrast, China’s birth rate has fallen so significantly that, “In 2050, according to United Nations projections, it is possible that nearly as many babies will be born in the United States as in China.”"
  7. Ed Leamer talks to Russ Roberts about macroeconomic patterns and stories.
  8. Richard Posner has a new blog?
  9. Including home production, GDP might not look so bad.
  10. Job opportunity index. Ranking the states with the best job prospects. No surprise that Michigan came in last. What did surprise me was that Virginia came in #3.
  11. Sending cell phones into the cloud. New technology offloads processing from a mobile device to its cloud-based doppelganger.
  12. Wolfram Alpha and Google faceoff with computational search engines.

I am not an animal.

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Monday, May 04, 2009

The Daily Dozen

  1. 7 lessons in manliness from the Greatest Generation. And speaking of the Greatest Generation, I'm currently out in Kansas City visiting my 93-year-old Aunt Ruth.
  2. The sin index? Geographers measure the propensity for evil in states and counties. It would be fascinating to study how this correlates with levels of church attendance in these areas.
  3. Does gender make a difference on the court?
  4. The duty to rescue. How kind are strangers?
  5. Keep credit cards underneath 25 percent of their limit.
  6. Learn willpower techniques from the marshmallow test.
  7. Are you at risk for the clutter mentality?
  8. Will flat rates replace billable hours at law firms? How will this change the calculus of starting salaries for attorneys and the expected value of going to law school?
  9. The Leonardo paradox. Science has long used the singular genius model. Is this interfering with translating bio-research into something useful?
  10. Stay away from complex math, theories?
  11. Apartment market conditions continue to worsen... for landlords that is. Now is a good market for renters.
  12. Quote of the day: "In archaeology you uncover the unknown. In diplomacy you cover the known." -- Thomas Pickering

gentleman kitteh...

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Friday, May 01, 2009

Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

Megan McArdle:
It's hard to think about the Federal Budget in terms we can understand. A moderately successful American will, over the course of a forty year career, earn several million dollars. But we don't even see all that money all at once. Numbers a million times bigger than our total lifetime earnings literally boggle the imagination.

One enterprising videoblogger, however, has undertaken to illustrate the impact of Obama's recently announced $100 million in budget cuts:

Gendered Job Losses

Catherine Rampell:

We’ve written a few times about how job losses during this recession have been disproportionately male. Heather Boushey, a senior economist at the Center for American Progress (a liberal think tank), pointed me toward a piece she just wrote with updated numbers on this trend.

It also includes an interactive graphic that shows where women’s and men’s jobs have been lost or gained, broken down by industry. Here’s a snapshot of the chart:

While both sexes have experienced a net job loss since the recession began, in almost every sector that hemorrhaged jobs, most of the jobs lost belonged to men. And in two out of the three sectors that netted payroll gains, the vast majority of new positions went to women.

On thing about this chart puzzles me: Why did men on net lose jobs in the government, while women gained so many? I assume this reflects a difference in the kinds of jobs that were lost and gained (e.g., outdoor jobs cleaning town sidewalks or somesuch, versus indoor jobs teaching first-graders). It’s unclear from just these numbers, though.

Good question.

The Daily Dozen

  1. The Swine Flu: How scared should you be? "It’s deadly serious; so even if the current threat fades, the world needs to be better armed."
  2. Justice Souter to retire. More thoughts here and here.
  3. The 50 best American adventures, by National Geographic.
  4. Sending cell phones into the cloud. "New technology offloads processing from a mobile device to its cloud-based doppelganger."
  5. Parrots join humans on the dance floor.
  6. The weirdest netbook name ever?
  7. Does the U.S. need an auto industry?
  8. A pie chart of the current job market.
  9. Torture and civilization. An argument about why torture is bad.
  10. Over half of reporting Kindle owners are 50 or older.
  11. A guide for the super-busy on how to live life to the fullest.
  12. The Secrets of Financial Freedom: An interview with the millionaire next door.

That's a Dog?

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