Blogging As Therapy?

Andrew Sullivan:

"Self-medication may be the reason the blogosphere has taken off. Scientists (and writers) have long known about the therapeutic benefits of writing about personal experiences, thoughts and feelings. But besides serving as a stress-coping mechanism, expressive writing produces many physiological benefits. Research shows that it improves memory and sleep, boosts immune cell activity and reduces viral load in AIDS patients, and even speeds healing after surgery. A study in the February issue of the Oncologist reports that cancer patients who engaged in expressive writing just before treatment felt markedly better, mentally and physically, as compared with patients who did not."

Not only that, but it makes your experiences more enjoyable too!

See my previous posts:

• Does Blogging Improve Our Lives?
• Journal Writing Is Good For Your Health!

(HT Tyler Cowen)

Bipartisanship

(HT Greg Mankiw)

All Mixed Up

Jessica Hagy:



Jessica’s earlier posts can be found here, her own blog here, and her recent book here.

At Supreme Court, 5-to-4 Rulings Fade — But Why?

An election year effect or something else?

A year ago at this time, the Supreme Court had decided 13 cases by votes of 5 to 4, out of 41 total decisions. That proved to be an accurate snapshot of a highly polarized term. By the time the court wrapped up its work five weeks later, a third of the cases — the highest proportion in years — had been decided by margins of a single vote.

But so far this term, with 35 cases decided with full opinions, there has been only a single 5-to-4 decision. It came in a low-visibility statutory case, not in a hot-button constitutional one. And the justices did not break along the ideological divisions that shaped the last term. Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, who was in the majority in all 24 of last term’s 5-to-4 decisions, voted in dissent.

Justice Kennedy’s dominance last term was so complete that, of 68 decisions, he cast only two dissenting votes. He has already dissented five times this term. So have Justices Samuel A. Alito Jr., Stephen G. Breyer and John Paul Stevens. In other words, no longer the essential justice, Anthony Kennedy now looks like just one of the pack.

Something is happening, clearly. The question is what.

Toward Non-Vacuous Economics

The Economist:

To say that A brings greater utility than B just is to say that it is preferred. We infer preference, and therefore utility, by observing what people have done. If I have in fact chosen A, then I preferred to it B, or —to say the same thing—A's utility to me is greater than B's.

That's it. It is not a part of the model that choosing A will in any sense make me feel better than choosing B. Subjective states are simply one more type of thing I may have preferences over. It is a fairly reliable generalisation that people prefer pleasure over pain. But it is is not a part of the model. People do run marathons and watch Jim Carrey movies, after all. It is also not a part of the model that people prefer more money to less, unless it is added as an assumption.

The trouble is that the formal model strictly construed fails to predict nothing, since it is completely vacuous. It simply says that whatever has been done—whether burning a billion dollars in a bonfire, or stabbing yourself in the thigh—in fact maximized utility.

In order to rule anything out, empirical generalisations about preferences must be added. But economists are at no special advantage at detecting these patterns by inferring preferences from behavior. Each action can be described any number of ways. And any number of preferences could motivate each action.

If Lois Lane kisses Superman, she has kissed Clark Kent, but we cannot infer inconsistent preferences when she refuses to kiss the bespectacled reporter. Preferences are, as philosophers of language put it, intensional —they refer to choices in certain guises or under certain modes of presentation. To use the example Mr Carroll discusses in his discussion of non-linearity, if I buy a bottle of wine at a restaurant for a price I would refuse in a shop, that likely goes to show that I have represented the options before me in different ways in the two cases. I have not chosen differently, given the same option. The options, as I see them, are different.

In order to be usefully predictive, what economics needs is not so much better mathematical tricks, but, first, a better grasp of the nature of mental representation.

In Memory of Maria

I just found out the five-year-old adopted daughter of Steven Curtis Chapman, one of my favorite Christian musicians, was killed in a tragic accident on Wednesday.

Maria Sue Chapman, adopted and youngest daughter to Mary Beth and Steven Curtis Chapman, was killed Wednesday night in a tragic accident in the family driveway on Wednesday evening. She was LifeFlighted to Vanderbilt Children's Hospital but for only reasons God can explain she went home to Him... not to Franklin as we all so desperately wanted.

Your prayers are needed for all in the Chapman family. This is a family who has so generously loved and given to so many. Just hours before this close knit family was celebrating the engagement of the oldest daughter Emily Chapman, and were just hours away from a graduation party marking Caleb Chapman's completion of high school. Now, they are preparing to bury a child who blew out 5 candles on a birthday cake less than 10 days ago. These words are unthinkable to type. And yet we trust in a God who was not surprised by this and because of Jesus I am certain through faith in Him we will see Maria again. - Jim Houser (Manager)

The family has started a blog with more information. They are asking for donations to Shaohannah's Hope in lieu of flowers.

Apparently Maria was hit by a SUV driven by her older brother, making this even more tragic for the family. I can't imagine the pain he must be going through right now.

I've been a fan of Chapman's for a very long time. Please keep him, his son, and all of their family in your thoughts and prayers during this tragic time.

P.S. -- Here is a cute video of Maria and her daddy recorded just two months ago:



This is so incredibly sad.

(HT All That Naz)

10 Awesome Indiana Jones Facts

I haven't seen the new movie yet, but hope to next week after I finish my law review write-on. In the meantime, here are 10 facts you might not know about Indiana Jones.

• Tom Selleck almost starred in it.
• There are many Star Wars tributes in The Temple of Doom.
• George Lucas' dog was the inspiration for both Indiana and Chewbacca.

Follow the link for more.

P.S. -- Here are the cinematic influences of Star Wars.

(HT Neatorama)

What's Wrong With CSI

Forensic evidence doesn't always tell the truth.

Forensic evidence is foolproof, right? It's how those clever cops on CSI always catch the killer. DNA evidence springs innocent men from prison. Fingerprints nab the bad guys.

If only forensics were that reliable. Instead, to judge by the most comprehensive study on the reliability of forensic evidence to date, the error rate is more than 10% in five categories of analysis, including fiber, paint and body fluids. (Meaning: When the expert says specimen X matches source Y, there's a 10% probability he's wrong.) DNA and fingerprints are more reliable but still not foolproof. The 1995 study, in the Journal of Forensic Sciences, looked at proficiency tests labs take to see whether their work is sound.

More recent studies have also shown problems. Though a 2005 study in the Journal of Criminal Law & Criminology suggests a fingerprint false-positive rate a bit below 1%, a widely read 2006 experiment shows an alarming 4% false-positive rate.

The core problem with the forensic system is monopoly. Once evidence goes to one lab, it is rarely examined by any other. That needs to change. Each jurisdiction should include several competing labs. Occasionally the same DNA evidence, for instance, could be sent to three different labs for analysis.

This procedure may seem like a waste. But such checks would save taxpayer money. Extra tests are inexpensive compared to the cost of error, including the cost of incarcerating the wrongfully convicted. A forthcoming study I wrote for the Independent Institute (a government-reform think tank) shows that independent triplicate fingerprint examinations in felony cases would not only eliminate most false convictions that result from fingerprint errors but also would reduce the cost of criminal justice if the false-positive error rate is more than 0.115%, or about one in a thousand.

Other reforms should include making labs independent of law enforcement and a requirement for blind testing. When crime labs are part of the police department, some forensic experts make mistakes out of an unconscious desire to help their "clients," the police and prosecution. Independence and blind testing prevent that. Creating the right to a forensic expert for the defense would help restore the imbalance in scientific firepower that too often exists between prosecution and defense. Private labs are subject to civil liability claims and administrative fines, giving them financial incentives to get it right.

These all sound like great ideas. If the goal of criminal investigation is to convict the guilty and protect the innocent, there seems to be little reason not to put these ideas into action. If the studies mentioned above are correct, these changes would lower costs and increase accuracy. They also represent a policy change that would satisfy both utilitarian and retributivist notions of justice.

(HT Don Boudreaux)

Hmmm...the zebra looks good

more cat pictures

iPhone = Kindle Killer?

Kevin Tofel wonders if the iPhone with be the Kindle Killer?

Given the iPhone SDK availability, this should come as no surprise, but it's nice to see confirmation. Mobipocket will be introducing an eBook client for the iPhone later this year according to Martin Gorner, president and CEO of Mobi. MobileRead got the information at the IDPF conference where Gorner spoke. That's good news to us folks that read digital content, but what does it mean for Amazon's Kindle?

After all, the Kindle format is a DRM-tweaked version of Mobipocket's format, so there's a key partnership between the two organizations. The iPhone and iPhone Touch user base is far and away larger than that of the Kindle, which is great for the eBook market, but may hurt Kindle sales in the long run. Of course, the products certainly have a smaller screen when compared the Kindle, but they offer connectivity options as well as a simple e-commerce experience through the iTunes store. Could the Kindle burn out even before sales get stoked?

Note: the image shown is from the TextOnPhone eBook web service that I video demo'd earlier this year.

Or maybe Apple will come out with one of these?

A Walk to Work

The Old Post Office


One of the things I love about my new job is the location. Our office is across the street from the West Building of the National Gallery of Art, right on the boarder of the National Mall. It's wonderful being less than a five-minute walk away from the Sculpture Garden.

Here are a few shots from my 5-block walk from the subway to my office:

FBI Headquarters


Department of Justice


National Archives


Federal Trade Commission


See a few more shots here.

After work tonight, I got to see my first Nationals game with a bunch of other summer interns:



Unfortunately, the Nationals were down 0-12 against the Phillies when I left at the end of the sixth inning. I haven't had the heart to check the final score...

Nikon to Nokia?

Thoughts on replacing your digital SLR with a cell phone:

Camera gear can be a major source of weight for the leisure/adventure traveler. Can you leave it behind and just rely on something that you’re going to take anyway - your phone? Read the Gadling account by a photojournalist turned editor who is sold on his new 5-megapixel phone: “Nikon to Nokia”

CNET said:

“We have to say picture quality was absolutely impressive. It may be the addition of the Xenon flash, but the N82 produced better photos than the Nokia N95; images were extremely sharp but we were mostly happy that the colors actually looked true to life. Video quality was also great.”

While I love the idea of the weight you could save while traveling, but don't think I would ever completely substitute a camera phone for my digital SLR. Not only does the SLR take better quality photos, but it gets 10x the battery life of my pocket camera. Still, I can really see the appeal of having a high-quality camera built into your cell phone.

Should First Cousins Marry?

This is something Ali and I have debated before. Here is what Megan McArdle thinks:

William Saletan defends cousin marriage on the grounds that you aren't that likely to have a baby with a birth defect. I think he's got the problem wrong: it's not an individual risk, but a population risk. Yes, an individual cousin marriage has a fairly low probability of birth defects. But if cousins keep marrying each other, they will reinforce some nasty recessives. That's why small populations that don't outmarry--the Amish, for example--have problems with birth defects, even when they aren't practicing cousin marriage. Whittle your mating population down to a thousand people and you're asking for trouble.

See my previous post: Kissing Cousins Make More Kids

The Way To Peace With China?

Don Boudreaux:

Mark Helprin correctly points out that as the Chinese grow more prosperous their military will grow more mighty ("The Challenge From China," May 13). He advises that Uncle Sam dramatically increase the size of his own arsenal.

Regardless of this suggestion's merits or demerits, the more vital course is for Uncle Sam to immediately eliminate all trade and investment restrictions with China, and for politicians to stop threatening further restrictions. Such moves would speed the integration of China's economy with our own. Being economically integrated means being economically reliant on each other - a happy recipe for prosperity and peace.

Want evidence? See the important work of economists Solomon Polachek and Carlos Seiglie. Their empirical research leads them to conclude that "international cooperation in reducing barriers to both trade and capital flows can promote a more peaceful world."* Want more evidence? Ask yourself how likely are even a well-armed Canada or Japan to have any interest in shooting their countless customers and suppliers throughout the U.S.? The answer, of course, is no more likely than we are to want to shoot our customers and suppliers throughout those countries

Donald J. Boudreaux

While I am sympathetic to Dr. Boudreaux's perspective, I wish I shared his level of confidence in increased trade as a solution to peace with China. I suspect both the American government and (particularly) the Chinese government would be willing to sacrifice economic growth to accomplish certain goals. Specifically, the Chinese government has a strong incentive to do away with any challenge to their authority by any means necessary. Thankfully, American politicians are generally held accountable for policies that are obviously harmful to American people. Chinese politicians are not held to account to the same degree. This gives Chinese politicians far more latitude than their American counterparts to engage in economically destructive policies that help secure their political positions. (Think of Tiananmen Square.) This could eventually include going to war with the US over Taiwan or other interests.

Three things are almost certain to happen the more the US trades with China:

1. China and the US will both become more wealthy,
2. the Chinese and American economies will become increasingly interdependent, and
3. the Chinese military will grow stronger.

I hope the positive effects of increased economic interdependence grow faster than the negative effects of a stronger Chinese military. Unfortunately, I think Dr. Boudreaux's analogy to Canada or Japan breaks down on one key dimension -- both Canada and Japan are not only economically intertwined with America, but are also largely dependent on the US for military defense. Neither country would be able to challenge or survive an open military conflict with the Untied States. This may not be true of a future China. Historically, the threat of Communism aligned Japanese, Canadian, and American foreign policy interests. This also has not been the case with China.

I do believe that tighter economic integration with China will have more benefits than costs with regards to our relationship with China and help keep peace between our two nations. I believe human rights are in part a luxury good, which means as China becomes more wealthy, their human rights abuses are likely to decrease. What concerns me is that China's population is getting wealthy at very unequal rates. The income disparity is far greater than income disparity in the US, with many Chinese peasants arguably having standards of living that are not much better than they were hundreds of years ago. Human rights may improve in wealthy areas, but unless significant economic growth also reaches the Chinese countryside, human rights violations may continue well into the foreseeable future in rural areas.

If the Americans are concerned about maintaining peace with China and the development of human rights, I fully agree that increased trade is one of the best things the US government can do towards encouraging both of these goals. I also think it's important for American politicians and policymakers to watch the Chinese government with a very watchful eye. Unless there is a significant change in current Sino-American relations, America would be well-served to maintain its military advantage over China. Increased trade is one strong incentive towards maintaining peace between the two nations. So is a potential enemy who has more guns than you.

That's Not Fair!

P.J. O'Rourke [PDF]:

I have a 10 year old at home, and she is always saying, "That's not fair." When she says that, I say, "Honey, you're cute; that's not fair. Your family is pretty well off; that's not fair. You were born in America; that's not fair. Honey, you had better pray to God that things don't start getting fair for you."

(HT Joe Carter)

What an Economics Major Should Take

Arnold Kling:

My youngest daughter (who is not an economics major, but is likely to take more courses in econ) was concerned that a course in environmental economics would be too squishy. I assured her that this ought to be a rigorous course that teaches important basic economic principles.

This got me to thinking about what might be a good set of, say, eight courses for an economics major.

1. Introductory micro
2. Intermediate micro
3. Environmental and resource economics (public goods, social cost, Prisoner's Dilemma, Coase, Hotelling, and economics of the global warming issue)
4. Finance (basic terminology, efficient markets hypothesis, portfolio separation theorem, Modigliani-Miller, futures and options)
5. Economic history (early history of trade; the industrial revolution; the Great Depression)
6. Economic methods--theory (probability and statistics, regression)
7. Economic methods--applied (natural experiments; uses and abuses of econometrics; uses and abuses of survey research)
8. Institutional economics, public choice, and economic development

I would skip some of the usual courses, such as industrial organization, international trade or labor economics. And you will notice something else--no macro, even at an introductory level.

With the eight courses listed above, a student would come out with a good mix of technical knowledge, institutional knowledge, and practical knowledge. You would have a basis to make informed investment decisions, an understanding of what accounts for differences in the standard of living (keeping in mind that we do not know all we would like about this issue), and an ability to think critically about empirical studies.

For students intending to apply for Ph.D programs, I would add macro and international trade to the list. I still think of macro as a history of thought course. International trade also would be recommended for someone headed toward a Ph.D, because trade theory uses mathematical modeling in a way that you will find it used in graduate school.

This list would give someone planning on getting a PhD a much better background than I had when I first started my PhD program. I never took an econ class as an undergrad and only had one introductory micro and one introductory macro class as part of my MBA program. I came in with a decent understanding of finance and some good quantitative skills from studying engineering as an undergrad.

During the first year of my PhD, I struggled a bit with learning some of the economic models and theories. I didn't have a problem so much with the quantitative aspects of them as much as I did with the abstract assumptions of many of the models. They just didn't seem to map well to the real world. Far less so than what I was used to in engineering. Unfortunately, I still feel that way about much of economics (particularly macro), but at least I've gotten more comfortable with the models and the methods along the way.

Having said that, I continue to think the basics of economics are extremely powerful and highly applicable. Outside of technical disciplines (such as engineering or computer science), I think economics is tough to beat as an undergraduate major. Not only does it provide you with a high starting salary coming out of college, but it just might make you happier too.

P.S. -- More on the problems with macroeconomics.

Why Doesn't Iceland Have A Military?

One of my classmates, Jeremy, comments in my recent post on Icelanders and happiness:

Iceland also has no military. That would make me really happy, ceteris paribus.

I just got done reading The Federalist for my Founder's Constitution class. In The Federalist #41, James Madison comments on how liberty developed in Britain in large part because it was blessed by being an island nation. As a result, Britain was able to defend itself almost exclusively by naval power. In contrast, Continental European powers proximity to one another and share boarders necessitated standing armies withing their own boarders for self-defense. Almost without exception, these armies eventually turned their guns inwardly to violate the liberties of the people. Britain alone had the good fortune of geography that allowed them the luxury of not needing a standing army, which created the fertile soil from which notions of liberty grew.

Madison intentionally argued for a strong union between the States so that the US would be one nation isolated from hostile foreign powers -- similar to Britain, rather than co-equal powers which could threaten each other militarily -- resembling Continental Europe. Madison saw this as a critical requirement for maintaining the liberty of American people.

Interestingly, America's isolation is what allowed them to develop without maintaining large standing armies (outside of times of war) for most of its history. Today, neither Japan nor Iceland have standing armies -- both being island countries with no hostile forces on any of their borders. (They are also both have the luxury of being protected by other powers.)

Question: Is geographic isolation a prerequisite for a nation doing away with having a standing army? How does technological development in weaponry and transportation affect the influence of isolation in this regard?

How Much Is A Mother Worth?

According to the Edelman Index, $802,690.

The job-market value of the role of a mother has increased to nearly $803,000, according to financial advisor Ric Edelman's Annual Mother's Day Index.

Edelman has been compiling the lighthearted annual study for ten years. The basis of the index is that the typical mom actually does many jobs: 17 of them. Using average annual compensation data from the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Edelman totals up the average salaries for those 17 key occupations to arrive at each year's Index number.

I don't care what this index says, my mom is priceless!

(HT Joe Carter)

My First Day of Work

I started my new job at the FTC today. It was mostly orientation --I will start working with my new group tomorrow. Based on everyone I've met so far, I think I'm really going to like working there. It's a perfect environment for me -- a good mix of lawyers and economists throughout the organization -- as well as quite a few people with ties to GMU.

A few observations:

1) I had to swear an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution -- just like the President. (I think this is the first time I've ever done this, although I may have had to when I had a summer job working for the US Army for two summers during college. I was a "child development program assistant" -- basically a fancy name for a summer-camp counselor. It was one of the funnest jobs I've ever had, getting paid to go swimming every day.)

2) Working one block away from the Smithsonian is going to be a treat. Art museums at lunch time is a definite possibility.

3) This is my first time having a 9-5 job in over 3 years! It's been much longer since I've had a job where I've had to wear a button-up shirt and tie to work every day. It actually feels kind of nice to dress-up again.

Speaking of dressing up, I was wearing a jacket and tie today. When I walked out of the office with a similarly dressed co-worker at the end of the day -- in sight of the National Archives and Smithsonian museums -- a single thought shot through my mind:

"I am a Washingtonian!"

Kind of weird and kind of fun!

Another Opportunity to Get EverNote for Free

I've blogged about EverNote before. I haven't had a chance to write-up a proper review of the program, but will say -- despite a few bugs and limitations, I really like it for taking notes. What makes it especially handy is how it syncs-up on-line and off-line data seamlessly, allowing me to access my notes and other data from any computer platform, including my Treo.

I had a bad experience once of my laptop crashing during finals with all my notes on it. I had back-ups of my files, but took my notes in OneNote and no one else had the software I needed to read my files. Needless to say, it had a negative impact on my grade for the course. That makes the online synchronization feature of EverNote particularly appealing.

Turns out EverNote is offering another chance to download the software for free:

Here's a short quckie: if you want in on the Evernote beta that we've been raving about, you've got until 2pm tomorrow afternoon. TUAW has a special 24-hour deal with Evernote via a special link. It's their deal, so I won't steal their thunder and promo code here. Instead, you can hop to it right here at TUAW and give Evernote a try.

Highly recommended!

The Evolution of the Cell Phone

I think they forgot one!



Which has now evolved into this:



(HT Mark Faulkner)

Icelanders: The Happiest People On Earth?

Nearly all happiness research indicates that high levels of religiosity and having a strong marriage are two factors that lead to increased happiness. But then there's Iceland:

Highest birth rate in Europe + highest divorce rate + highest percentage of women working outside the home = the best country in the world in which to live. There has to be something wrong with this equation. Put those three factors together - loads of children, broken homes, absent mothers - and what you have, surely, is a recipe for misery and social chaos. But no. Iceland, the block of sub-Arctic lava to which these statistics apply, tops the latest table of the United Nations Development Programme's (UNDP) Human Development Index rankings, meaning that as a society and as an economy - in terms of wealth, health and education - they are champions of the world.

Yes, but - what with the dark winters and the far from tropical summers - are Icelanders happy? Actually, in so far as one can reliably measure such things, they are. According to a seemingly serious academic study reported in the Guardian in 2006, Icelanders are the happiest people on earth. (The study was lent some credibility by the finding that the Russians were the most unhappy.)

My thoughts: Iceland is a happy place despite its high divorce rates and low levels of religiosity. It is a very free country (#14 out of 157 according to the Index of Economic Freedom). As with other nations, rising GPD per capita and better economic opportunity for women makes divorce less costly and therefore more likely. While Iceland may indeed generally be a happy place, I'd expect Icelanders who have solid marriages and attend church regularly are even happier than your average Icelander.

While it is true that people in wealthier countries are happier than people in poorer countries, there is only weak correlation inside those countries between happiness and wealth. (In other words, if you live in a wealthy nation, earning a lot of income probably won't buy you a whole lot of happiness relative to a modest income.) My intuition says that a similar relationship may hold true for marriage and religiosity -- cross-country comparisons and intra-country comparisons may lead to two entirely different results. It is entirely conceivable that countries with higher divorce rates and lower levels of religiosity are "happier" than countries with lower divorce rates and higher levels of religiosity, while at the same time people in each country who have higher religiosity and lower divorce rates are happier than their fellow countrymen.

P.S. -- People generally are happier the freer they are. When freedom and wealth both increase, people have greater opportunity and ability to express true preferences about both religion and marriage. This could lead to less preference falsification within society -- potentially leading to higher divorce rates and lower rates of religious participation. (Timur Kuran has some excellent work on preference falsification called Private Truth, Public Lies.) I would expect societies with lower levels of preference falsification to have stronger correlations between happiness, marriage, and religiosity.

(HT Seth Roberts)

Communism: Bad For Freedom, Great For Breakdancing

Not only that, but it's good for gymnastics too!

(HT Neatorama)

Where You Sit

Ugh! This hits too close to home for me to admit where I usually sit...


(PhD Comics)

Ignorant Masses, Dogmatic Elites?

Andrew Gelman on the issue of global warming:

Among college grads, there is a big partisan divide between Democrats and Republicans. Among non-graduates, the differences are smaller. This is completely consistent with research that shows that people with more education are on average more politically polarized...Basically, higher educated Democrats are more partisan Democrats, and higher educated Republicans are more partisan Republicans. On average, educated people are more tuned in to politics and more likely to align their views with their political attitudes.

To which Arnold Kling replies:

This is consistent with Critical Review editor Jeffrey Friedman's model of "two forms of ignorance." The masses lack interest/information, so their minds are not made up. The elites are informed, but they have dogmatic views reinforced by confirmation bias.

The question to ask someone on either side of the global warming debate is this:

***What new information might cause you to change your mind?***

My experience is that you usually won't get any meaningful answers from anyone on either side of the debate.