Where in the World Are the Christians?

A Pew report on the size and distribution of the world's Christian population:

The number of Christians around the world has nearly quadrupled in the last 100 years, from about 600 million in 1910 to more than 2 billion in 2010. But the world’s overall population also has risen rapidly, from an estimated 1.8 billion in 1910 to 6.9 billion in 2010. As a result, Christians make up about the same portion of the world’s population today (32%) as they did a century ago (35%). 

This apparent stability, however, masks a momentous shift. Although Europe and the Americas still are home to a majority of the world’s Christians (63%), that share is much lower than it was in 1910 (93%). And the proportion of Europeans and Americans who are Christian has dropped from 95% in 1910 to 76% in 2010 in Europe as a whole, and from 96% to 86% in the Americas as a whole. 

At the same time, Christianity has grown enormously in sub-Saharan Africa and the Asia-Pacific region, where there were relatively few Christians at the beginning of the 20th century. The share of the population that is Christian in sub-Saharan Africa climbed from 9% in 1910 to 63% in 2010, while in the Asia-Pacific region it rose from 3% to 7%. Christianity today – unlike a century ago – is truly a global faith. 

One of the many interesting statistics in this report is that China is currently has the 7th largest Christian population in the world. With the current growth of Christianity in China, this is likely to increase further in the near future, with many commentators speculating China will have the world's largest Christian population in the near future.

Read the whole thing.

P.S. -- Here is John Micklewait, editor of the Economist, on Christianity in China:



More on the growth of Christianity in China from PBS and NPR.  And a deeper look into Christianity in China by the Pew Forum.

China Is Now the World’s Leading Energy Consumer

Mark Wilson:

In 2000, the US consumed twice the energy of China. But by 2009, China had become the world's leading energy consumer, according to a new International Energy Agency report.

How much energy did China burn through last year? 2,252 million tons of oil equivalent (sources include oil, nuclear power, etc)—only about 4% more than the US, who, in all fairness, still consumes the most energy per capita.

A different metric? Three years ago, China was the world's biggest exporter of coal. Now it's the leading importer. And last year, for the first time ever, Saudi Arabia sold more oil to China than the US.

Given that China's consumption will give them more negotiation power in the world's power market, it may be a good time to buck our trend of a mere 2.5% energy efficiency increase per year. [CNN via CrunchGear and image]

More on this here.

The Age of China

Chinese workers will become much scarcer:

Since the 1970s China’s birth rate has plummeted while the number of elderly people has risen only gradually. As a result its “dependency ratio”—the proportion of dependents to people at work—is low. This has helped to fuel China’s prodigious growth. But this “demographic dividend” will peak in 2010. China’s one-child policy will keep birth rates low, but as life expectancy continues to increase, so will the dependency ratio, reducing the country’s potential for growth. The government could yet salvage the situation by loosening its one-child policy. More children would increase the dependency ratio until they were old enough to join the workforce, but reduce labour shortages in the long term.

China’s Higher Education Revolution

China is closing the gap in higher education:

When Mao Zedong came to power in 1949, there were only 205 universities in China. They closed down during the turbulent era of the Cultural Revolution from 1966 to 1977. Under Deng Xiaoping, they began to reopen in 1978.

In the 30 years since, China has experienced a higher education revolution. It now has the largest higher education system in the world.Five of its universities are in the world's top 100. University enrollment has more than tripled since 2000. More university degrees are awarded in China than in the U.S. and India combined. Over the last decade, annual awards of doctoral degrees in China have risen sevenfold. China recently surpassed the UK to become the world's second-largest producer of academic research papers, and is on course to surpass the U.S. by 2020.

China's Empty City

An empty city built for a million residents:

At about 1:20 you will see that a city built for one million residents remains empty, a' la Austro-Chinese business cycle theory. "Ordos was a government idea, an infrastructure project taken to its limits, the motivation was likely gdp..." -- can you get better than that? After the first minute or so the video is stunning.

Help Free Gao Zhisheng

The photo to the right is of Gao Zhisheng's wife Geng he, daughter Geng Ge (16) and son Gao Tianyu (5).

A sad case of human rights abuse of by the Chinese government:

Christian human rights attorney Gao Zhisheng, disappeared February 4, and was last seen being taken away by a dozen police officers. Gao Zhisheng has been repeatedly kidnapped, arrested, imprisoned and tortured by Chinese authorities, because he has defended the persecuted and has been an unyielding voice for justice in the Chinese courts.

Read Gao's account of 50 days of torture in 2007.

ChinaAid together with Mr. Gao's wife and children are deeply concerned about Mr. Gao, and reports from inside China indicate he is experiencing severe torture.

Today is day 74 Gao Zhisheng is held hostage by the Chinese government. It is uncertain if he is even alive or dead.

Follow the link to learn how you can help.

Family Of Chinese Activist Lawyer Escapes To U.S.

Family members of Chinese dissident, Gao Zhisheng, have successfully fled to the US. Gao Zhisheng has not been seen since February 4th and is feared to have been kidnapped by Chinese authorities and is being tortured or worse.

Gao Zhisheng is a self-taught lawyer who was tortured by Chinese secret police after taking on human rights cases including the defense of other dissidents, religious minorities, and underground Christians. He was also a candidate for the 2008 Nobel Peace Prize.

Here is the story of his family's escape:

The wife and two children of one of China's most prominent dissidents have sought asylum in the United States. They said police pressure had made their life unbearable, leading to a dramatic escape through Southeast Asia.

In early January, Geng He wrote a note to her husband, Gao Zhisheng, a crusading lawyer who is one of China's best known dissidents. It said, "I've taken the children so they can get schooling." And then she fled, taking their 15-year-old daughter and 5-year-old son with her...

Now there are fears for Gao's safety. Sources say he was interrogated three times, one of them for two nights and a day, after his family fled. He hasn't been seen since Feb. 4, when he was bundled away by police.

In 2007, he was detained by the authorities for 13 days. He later made public detailed allegations of torture during that time.

"Every time I was tortured, I was repeatedly threatened that, if I spelled out later what had happened to me, I would be tortured again. But I was told, 'This time it will happen in front of your wife and children,' " Gao said at the time. "The tall, strong man repeated over and over during the days I was tortured, 'Your death is sure if you share this with the outside world.' "

NYU's Cohen says pressure should now be placed on the Chinese authorities to produce Gao immediately.

"In light of the terrible, obscene tortures to which he was previously subjected, I think there's a reasonable question as to whether he's alive, and I think the Chinese authorities ought to be called upon to produce him," he says.

"Thirty-seven days of silence — it's a total violation of their legal system, and I think their leaders ought to be called to account for it."

Read more news about Gao Zhisheng here.

Please pass this on to help publicize this abuse of basic human rights by Chinese officials and to draw prayer and support for Gao Zhisheng and his family.

China Faces A Sexual Crises

Strategy Page:

There are now 115 boys for every 100 girls. Young men are having a problem finding wives. Wealthier urban males attract more women from the rural areas (where 70 percent of Chinese still live), leaving a lot of lonely, poor and angry young men in the countryside. The smaller generations means that the proportion of elderly (made wealthier and healthier by the booming economy) is skyrocketing, while the workforce is shrinking. Both these trends are bad, and will have negative social and economic impacts. India has the same gender imbalance problem, but a growing population that contains a higher proportion of poor people than in China. Not good.

Not good at all.

China Confiscates Bibles From Americans, Arrests Pastor On Way To Church

Religious freedom in China continues to score low marks:

Chinese customs officials confiscated more than 300 Bibles on Sunday from four American Christians who arrived in a southwestern city with plans to distribute them, the group's leader said.

The Bibles were taken from the group's checked luggage after they landed at the airport in the city of Kunming, said Pat Klein, head of Vision Beyond Borders. The group, based in Sheridan, Wyoming, distributes Bibles and Christian teaching materials around the world to "strengthen the persecuted church," according to its Web site.

"I heard that there's freedom of religion in China, so why is there a problem for us to bring Bibles?" Klein said. "We had over 300 copies and customs took all of them from us."

Bibles are printed under the supervision of the Communist government. The officially atheistic country only allows them to be used in government-sanctioned churches and in some big hotels catering to foreigners.

China faces routine criticism for its human rights violations and its repression of religious freedom. Religious practice is heavily regulated by the Communist Party, with worship allowed only in party-controlled churches, temples and mosques, while those gathering outside face harassment, arrest and terms in labor camps or prison.

A Chinese Christian activist was detained Aug. 10, the opening weekend of the Olympics, on his way to a church service attended by President Bush in Beijing. A rights group said later that the activist, Hua Huiqi, a leader of the unofficial Protestant church in Beijing, had escaped from police and was in hiding. Police have denied any involvement in Hua's disappearance.

No police involvement in Hua's disappearance? Just like the singing and the fireworks were real at the opening ceremony for the Olympics, or that the paralyzed dancer had merely broken her leg?

Here is more on Hua Hiang's detention by police and his subsequent escape. Also, read about the Chinese government's control of the printing of Bibles.

Below is a video about previous beatings of Hua Huiqi, including reports his mother is also being held prisoner as leverage against him:

Dancer Paralyzed During Olympic Ceremony Rehersals

A hidden tragedy in Beijing during preparations for the Olympics:

A talented, 26-year-old Chinese dancer was seriously injured during a rehearsal for the opening ceremonies of the Beijing Olympic games just 12 days before the show, and is now facing the prospect of being paralyzed for the rest of her life.

The organizers of the opening ceremonies seemed intent on keeping the injury from detracting from the pageantry of the event. They initially asked witnesses and friends not to disclose the tragedy ahead of the elaborate production last Friday that showcased China’s prominence on the world stage, according to people who have visited the dancer in the hospital.

But after an inquiry from The New York Times about the injury and rumors about it on the Internet, members of the Beijing Olympic Committee visited the dancer in the hospital with a television crew, and said they would do everything possible to help her. They also announced that they would soon hold a press conference to offer more details about her condition, according to family members.

A little late for this gesture to have the meaning it could have had or for the appearance of genuine concern.

The performer, Liu Yan, considered one of the country’s top classical Chinese dancers, was preparing for the performance of a lifetime: dancing the only solo piece in a four-hour-long spectacular that was expected to be seen by a global audience of more than one billion people.

But on July 27, during an evening rehearsal at Beijing’s National Stadium, the so-called "Bird’s Nest," she leaped toward a moving platform that suddenly malfunctioned, and then plunged about three meters into a shaft, crashing her spine against a set of steel bars, according to family members.

She was rushed to a local military hospital, where she underwent six hours of surgery. But she now suffers from severe nerve and spinal damage. Her head was not badly injured, and she now has movement of her arms. But she has no feeling and cannot move her lower body, including her legs. Doctors have told her family that it is unlikely that she will ever walk again.

First the Chinese government fakes firework footage then is cruel to a child how thought she would sing to the world. Now they ignore an injured dancer and try to hide her tragedy, rather than trying to draw emotional support for her from all over the world. It makes me wonder how much more they have done that is not being reported?

The Chinese government is trying to put on a good face to the rest of the world, but in many ways are coming across exactly the opposite of what they intended. They don't seem to be too adept at dealing with media and people that they don't control. The sad thing is that their government would have won respect by being open about the accident and calling for support for Liu Yan, gained little by faking the fireworks, and people around the globe would have fallen in love with any little girl who sang to the world.

My heart, thoughts, and prayers go out to Liu Yan and her family. Unlike the Chinese government, I'd ask for yours to do the same.

Here is a video of a beautiful dancer who will likely never dance again:



See more videos of Liu Yan's dancing here and here.

P.S. -- To worsen this tragedy, apparently Liu Yan was left lying in agony for over 50-minutes before paramedics attended to her due to strict security during the rehearsals. Adding to their deceptions about the fireworks and singing children during the opening ceremonies, Chinese officials originally insisted Liu Yan had "only broken her leg and was recovering from a fracture."

Beijing Is All Dressed Up, With No One To Go

China has to bus in cheer squads to fill empty seats:

Just like the Oscars have "seat-fillers" to hide the empty seats when people go to the bathroom, the Chinese are busing in state-trained "cheer squads" to fill the surprising numbers of empty seats at the Olympics.

Dressed in identical bright yellow t-shirts, the cheer squads are meant to improve the Olympic atmosphere and avoid embarrassing television shots of all the no-shows at the Games. As the Washington Post notes, "The U.S. softball team played in a stadium only about 30 percent full on Tuesday, while the day before, 10 of 18 venues did not reach 80 percent capacity."

Officials blame the poor crowds on everything from the weather to strict visa regulations to spectators not wanting to watch the less exciting sports.

Beijing hotel owners, who were expected to be some of the biggest beneficiaries of the 2008 Olympics, have been underwhelmed by the amount of business the Games have brought. From the Washington Post: "'Business is worse than at this time last year,' said a receptionist at a 22-room hotel in Beijing's Chongwen district, where rooms cost $28 a night. 'It's the season for traveling and last year the hotel was full. The Olympics should have brought business to Beijing, but the reality is too far from the expectation.'"

While no where near as bad as faking fireworks or falsifying singing children, this is still kind of sad. My guess is that China has restricted admission so much due to security concerns, they've made it far too much of a hassle for most Chinese citizens to bother attending. The Chinese government has made far too many enemies within their own country to allow unsecured access to their average citizen... and it shows!

Not Cute Enough For the Olympics?

I thought fake fireworks were bad, but this is just awful:

The girl in the red dress with the pigtails, called Lin Miaoke, 9, and from a Beijing primary school, has become a national sensation since Friday night, giving interviews to all the most popular newspapers.

But the show's musical designer felt forced to set the record straight. He gave an interview to Beijing radio saying the real singer was a seven-year-old girl who had won a gruelling competition to perform the anthem, a patriotic song called "Hymn to the Motherland".

At the last moment a member of the Chinese politburo who was watching a rehearsal pronounced that the winner, a girl called Yang Peiyi, might have a perfect voice but was unsuited to the lead role because of her buck teeth.

So, on the night, while a pre-recording of Yang Peiyi singing was played, Lin Miaoke, who has already featured in television advertisements, was seen but not heard.

"This was a last-minute question, a choice we had to make," the ceremony's musical designer, Chen Qigang, said. "Our rehearsals had already been vetted several times - they were all very strict. When we had the dress rehearsals, there were spectators from various divisions, including above all a member of the politburo who gave us his verdict: we had to make the swap."

Mr Chen's interview gave an extraordinary insight into the control exercised over the ceremony by the Games' political overseers, all to ensure the country was seen at its best.

If this is how the Chinese government treats little children when at its best, I'd hate to see it on a bad day.

Yang Peiyi is said to have reacted well to the disappointment. "I am proud to have been chosen to sing at all," she is reported to have said.

I'm sure this has just as much truth to it as the singing and the fireworks.

What started off as seeming to be a beautiful ceremony just keeps getting uglier and uglier.

P.S. -- Here is a video report on this from CNN:

Footprint Fireworks Faked Into Olympic Opening Ceremony

After the superb opening ceremonies to the Beijing Olympics, news of China's doctoring video footage is deeply disappointing:

A local Beijing paper has revealed that some of the amazing fireworks in the Olympics opening show were digitally-crafted fakes, inserted into the live TV feed. The Beijing Times quotes the head of visual effects, who says that the 28 giant footprints that stomped through the air above the city, ending at the stadium, were advanced CGI. Though the pyrotechnics really were set off, the airborne camera view that the rest of the world watched was fake. Why go to these lengths? Apparently the Olympic committee decided that to follow the real trail of firework footprints was too dangerous for a helicopter camera. Instead a team spent almost a year crafting the fake segment, paying attention to even get the smog lighting effects correct. [The Telegraph]

While some people seem to think it's not a big deal, I find it disturbing that China would falsify footage. Two things are particularly troublesome:

1) The officials who gave the go ahead for the doctoring of the footage apparently find nothing wrong in falsifying an image of their country displayed to the world. he meticulous detail involved in doctoring the video means much time, effort, and intention was put into this falsification. Decision makers had to know about this and give their approval. It raises the question of what else does China falsify to the rest of the world and serves to legitimize the distrust many feel towards China.

2) The footprint footage was such a minor part of the entire ceremony. To intentionally falsify something so minor in an event so major shows a serious lapse in judgement and a troubling lack of concern about truthfulness. People who lie about little things have a much larger incentive and greater likelihood to lie about the big things.

This falsification tarnishes an otherwise beautiful ceremony and all the work of those who put such great efforts into making it happen. As I wrote earlier, this is China's chance to be in the world's spotlight. This does not make them look good at all.

Scenes From the Olympic Opening Ceremonies

A slideshow of one of the best performances ever:



And the grand finale lighting of the torch:

China's Entry Onto the World Stage

I watched the opening ceremony for the Olympics with mom, dad, and Aunt Ruth last night and was incredibly impressed. By far, this was the most impressive opening to the games yet. The combination of human talent, incredible technology, artistry, creativity, and pyrotechnics drew the breath away. From the creation of a Chinese print from the footprints of the athletes to the way the torch was lit by a man running through the air following a scroll opening around the stadium, it was one of the most impressive performances I've ever seen.

This was China's moment to be in the spotlight of the world and they came off as beyond impressive. Perceptions matter and the image China gave was of a world-class nation with great civility, creativity, and technical prowess. They intended to impress and succeeded brilliantly.

As I wrote previously, China has a host of internal problems but if they can address these with equal energy, dynamism, and creativity, their future may be looking bright. I am hopeful that as the nation progresses economically, their freedoms will grow as well. If China develops basic freedoms for their people such as freedom of press, assembly, worship, etc., the potential size of their internal market and the sheer size of their population could generate an economic and technological power the likes the world has never seen. Much of this rests on how well China handles their internal conflicts -- if they handle them by loosening the grip of the government, I expect them to go through a rocky, but positive transition to a world-class superpower. If they tighten the grip of government control and continue to deny their citizens basic liberties, I expect greater internal conflict that will cause increasing problems for the massive country. I am hopeful, but uncertain about China's future.

Here more thoughts:

As was stated by broadcasters over and over again, China's a country of tremendous challenges—environmental, economic and human rights-wise—and as a journalist heading into that mess some time in the near future, I'm all too aware of the problems that await me. But after last night's performance, I walked away with a small overflow of pride for my heritage and a lot of hope for a brighter future. I guess that's what the Olympics are all about. [Xinhua]

And still more:

Anyone watching the Olympic Opening Ceremony from Beijing could not help but be awed by the extraordinary spectacle, a significant achievement in wedding modern technology with ancient artistic skills. It is easy to believe that many will say this symbolizes China's rise in the world to a position of leadership if not preeminence.

It is extremely important to realize that this Olympic ceremony would never have happened except for the silent but profoundly important economic revolution that happened in China that was entirely caused by the opening up of the economy to free competitive markets, free enterprise, international competition, and the creation of a rule of law and government stability (more needs to be done in these areas, to be sure). People were empowered economically, and government retreated from people's lives and allowed a thousand flowers to bloom and we that, let the good times roll. That gave China the resources and international respect that allowed this magnificent artistic/technological achievement to occur.

There is no question that China will become an increasingly prominent nation in world economics and politics. Let's hope what we saw last night is a sign of the positive changes that are yet to come.

The Olympic Games Begin!

The Olympics started today in Beijing. (Here are some superb photos of the opening events. Here are more photos and videos.) Mom, dad, and I plan on watching the opening ceremony tonight with Aunt Ruth before starting our journey back home to Virginia tomorrow morning. While I'm excited to watch the ceremony, I have less excitement than usual about the games thanks to the specter the Chinese government is casting over the games. Their government is incredibly afraid of losing face to the rest of the world and that is causing them to clamp down on the rights of their citizens (and athletes) in order to try to control how the games turn out. This is particularly problematic as this may incentivize groups to disrupt the games in order to bring world attention to their particular groups and/or issues. (At least one terrorist threat has already been made.) It remains to be seen what this means for the games, which are certainly the most politicized Olympics since the Cold War.

I think this year's Olympics are going to highlight much of what is good and what is bad in China right now.

The good:

• Increasing economic freedom.
  
• Increasing openness to the rest of the world.
• Rising standards of living.

The bad:

• Communism.
• Continued persecution of minorities, including many religious groups.
• Restricted political freedom.
• Extreme inequality of wealth.
• One-child policy leading to a problematic gender imbalance.
• Poor record on human rights.
• Rampant pollution -- especially in Beijing.
• Rising militarism.
  
• Many internal enemies held in check through government suppression.
  

Unfortunately, in many ways the bad seems to outweigh the good. I'm optimistic that the trends of the good may eventually reduce the magnitude of the bad, although I wish I was more confident of this than I am.

See my other posts on China and read more thoughts on what to look for during the Olympics from Gordon Chang.

To keep track of games, here are a number of resources:

Google has a website dedicated to keeping track of the Olympics:

Google unveils a 2008 Summer Olympics landing page, a clearinghouse for various GOOG tools that are tracking the events in Beijing. See a Google Map of medals, YouTube video highlights, Google News headlines, a 3D video tour plus Sketchup models of the venues, and add an iGoogle gadget that tracks medal counts to your Google homepage.

Wired Magazine has a round-up of where to watch the games online.

The New York Times has excellent coverage of the games, including a blog devoted to the Olympics.

Deadspin is a blog that looks to have excellent Olympic coverage.

The BBC has also set-up a website to keep track of the games.

P.S. -- Just for fun, here's a timeline showing the evolution of the Olympic torch. I have to agree with Gizmodo -- this year's torch which is designed (by Lenovo) to look like a red scroll just might be my favorite.

Chinese Anti-Terror Segway Commandos!

The latest innovation in Chinese crowd control:

From Xinhua via our friends at China Car Times comes the above photo, showing Chinese counter-terrorism forces going through drills as they prepare to crush any dissent terror threat that might arise during next month's Olympic Games. The black ninja suits, fritz helmets, body armor, and submachine pistols all fit the profile of a specialized group like this. But... Segways?

I am starting to see a lot of cops in DC riding around on these too. Somehow it ruins their tough guy image...

(HT Glenn Reynolds)

The Way To Peace With China?

Don Boudreaux:

Mark Helprin correctly points out that as the Chinese grow more prosperous their military will grow more mighty ("The Challenge From China," May 13). He advises that Uncle Sam dramatically increase the size of his own arsenal.

Regardless of this suggestion's merits or demerits, the more vital course is for Uncle Sam to immediately eliminate all trade and investment restrictions with China, and for politicians to stop threatening further restrictions. Such moves would speed the integration of China's economy with our own. Being economically integrated means being economically reliant on each other - a happy recipe for prosperity and peace.

Want evidence? See the important work of economists Solomon Polachek and Carlos Seiglie. Their empirical research leads them to conclude that "international cooperation in reducing barriers to both trade and capital flows can promote a more peaceful world."* Want more evidence? Ask yourself how likely are even a well-armed Canada or Japan to have any interest in shooting their countless customers and suppliers throughout the U.S.? The answer, of course, is no more likely than we are to want to shoot our customers and suppliers throughout those countries

Donald J. Boudreaux

While I am sympathetic to Dr. Boudreaux's perspective, I wish I shared his level of confidence in increased trade as a solution to peace with China. I suspect both the American government and (particularly) the Chinese government would be willing to sacrifice economic growth to accomplish certain goals. Specifically, the Chinese government has a strong incentive to do away with any challenge to their authority by any means necessary. Thankfully, American politicians are generally held accountable for policies that are obviously harmful to American people. Chinese politicians are not held to account to the same degree. This gives Chinese politicians far more latitude than their American counterparts to engage in economically destructive policies that help secure their political positions. (Think of Tiananmen Square.) This could eventually include going to war with the US over Taiwan or other interests.

Three things are almost certain to happen the more the US trades with China:

1. China and the US will both become more wealthy,
2. the Chinese and American economies will become increasingly interdependent, and
3. the Chinese military will grow stronger.

I hope the positive effects of increased economic interdependence grow faster than the negative effects of a stronger Chinese military. Unfortunately, I think Dr. Boudreaux's analogy to Canada or Japan breaks down on one key dimension -- both Canada and Japan are not only economically intertwined with America, but are also largely dependent on the US for military defense. Neither country would be able to challenge or survive an open military conflict with the Untied States. This may not be true of a future China. Historically, the threat of Communism aligned Japanese, Canadian, and American foreign policy interests. This also has not been the case with China.

I do believe that tighter economic integration with China will have more benefits than costs with regards to our relationship with China and help keep peace between our two nations. I believe human rights are in part a luxury good, which means as China becomes more wealthy, their human rights abuses are likely to decrease. What concerns me is that China's population is getting wealthy at very unequal rates. The income disparity is far greater than income disparity in the US, with many Chinese peasants arguably having standards of living that are not much better than they were hundreds of years ago. Human rights may improve in wealthy areas, but unless significant economic growth also reaches the Chinese countryside, human rights violations may continue well into the foreseeable future in rural areas.

If the Americans are concerned about maintaining peace with China and the development of human rights, I fully agree that increased trade is one of the best things the US government can do towards encouraging both of these goals. I also think it's important for American politicians and policymakers to watch the Chinese government with a very watchful eye. Unless there is a significant change in current Sino-American relations, America would be well-served to maintain its military advantage over China. Increased trade is one strong incentive towards maintaining peace between the two nations. So is a potential enemy who has more guns than you.

China: An Intellectual Vacuum Cleaner?

(Photo via sekihan)

Chinese sleeper agents stealing US technology:

Prosecutors called Chi Mak the "perfect sleeper agent," though he hardly looked the part. For two decades, the bespectacled Chinese-born engineer lived quietly with his wife in a Los Angeles suburb, buying a house and holding a steady job with a U.S. defense contractor, which rewarded him with promotions and a security clearance. Colleagues remembered him as a hard worker who often took paperwork home at night.

Eventually, Mak's job gave him access to sensitive plans for Navy ships, submarines and weapons. These he secretly copied and sent via courier to China -- fulfilling a mission that U.S. officials say he had been planning since the 1970s.

Mak was sentenced last week to 24 1/2 years in prison by a federal judge who described the lengthy term as a warning to China not to "send agents here to steal America's military secrets." But it may already be too late: According to U.S. intelligence and Justice Department officials, the Mak case represents only a small facet of an intelligence-gathering operation that has long been in place and is growing in size and sophistication.

The Chinese government, in an enterprise that one senior official likened to an "intellectual vacuum cleaner," has deployed a diverse network of professional spies, students, scientists and others to systematically collect U.S. know-how, the officials said. Some are trained in modern electronic techniques for snooping on wireless computer transactions. Others, such as Mak, are technical experts who have been in place for years and have blended into their communities.

Recent prosecutions indicate that Chinese agents have infiltrated sensitive military programs pertaining to nuclear missiles, submarine propulsion technology, night-vision capabilities and fighter pilot training -- all of which could help China modernize its programs while developing countermeasures against advanced weapons systems used by the United States and its allies.

While military technology appears to be the top prize, the Chinese effort is also aimed at commercial and industrial technologies, which often are poorly protected, several officials said. "Espionage used to be a problem for the FBI, CIA and military, but now it's a problem for corporations," Brenner said. "It's no longer a cloak-and-dagger thing. It's about computer architecture and the soundness of electronic systems."

I remember some of the older engineers at Westinghouse telling me stories of Chinese businessmen who got caught staying late at the office an photocopying any engineering drawings they could get could get their hands on -- often ones that had no relevance to anything they were working on.

This type of spying seems to represent several things: (1) A deep-rooted national security problem; (2) a black mark against the trustworthiness of the Chinese government; (3) an indication that China is far behind the US with its human capital and ability to innovate. From a national security perspective, problems 1 and 2 are deeply troubling. Problem 3 is not.

I do think this should be a deep concern for US officials, both on military and intellectual property grounds. Strong sentencing for perpetrators in one method of trying to use the law for general deterrence of this type of spying, but may only have limited effect. If the spying is as rampant as claimed, then the number of prosecutions seems to be quite low. The expected chances of getting caught seem to be quite low making harsh punishment unlikely to have much effect. I also doubt that negotiations with the Chinese government will make much of a change -- they have to much to gain by engaging in this type of espionage. The other option is for the US government and corporations to invest more time and money into taking precautions to protect information they think is sensitive.

If the Chinese have gotten as much information as this article suggests, is that a stronger indication of the deviousness of the Chinese government or the ineptitude of the US government?

Read my previous post on why I think the Chinese military will not be as much of a threat in the short-run as many believe it will be.

One Party, One Child

An insightful look at the political incentives keeping China's one-child policy alive:

As Communist Party elites hobnob in Beijing this week, the one-child policy has become a dangerous liability for current -- and future -- political leaders. So why not get rid of it?

The top brass worry that if they were to relax the policy -- for example by switching to a two-child policy -- the ensuing flood of babies would overwhelm schools and hospitals, threatening the stability on which they have built their rule. Then there's the loss of face, not to mention the fear of repercussions. How do you tell a mother who has been forcibly sterilized or who was forced to undergo an abortion that it was all a big mistake?

You don't. Instead, you continue to force more mothers to do the same.