Wednesday, September 10, 2008

That Didn't Take Long

Last Friday I wrote:
As I post this, Obama essentially has 3-to-2 odds over McCain. Barring any major gaffes, changes, or scandals by either side, I expect this gap to gradually narrow as the election draws nearer.
At the time, Obama was still leading McCain by about 20 points in the prediction markets. This is what it looks like today:

That now means the gap is into the single digits and is approaching the probability of a coin-toss for who will win. Is Obama losing momentum, McCain gaining some, or both?


Abraham Lincoln's Doctor's Dog said...
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thinking said...

The McCain/Palin campaign is actually doing something I didn't think possible: they are making the Clintons look like paragons of truth and virtue.

It isn't that the McCain camp so lies in such an obvious and brazen way; it's that they keep repeating those lies even after virtually every media outlet and commentator has called them out on it. Thus they establish themselves as worse than the Clintons.

Add to that the fact that McCain is desparate to avoid any discussion of the real issues impacting people's lives. The McCain campaign wants to turn this election into a soap opera and reality show, rather than a referendum on policy, which they would lose in a landslide.

I agree with Obama: Enough of this garbage. Let the Republicans, who preach ownership and personal responsibility, own their failures.

If this were a business, Bush would have been fired a long time ago, and there is no way the board would even consider someone trying to duplicate the same policies, like McCain.

I used to really respect McCain but that McCain no longer exists. McCain is not a Reagan Republican; he is a Rovian Republican now.