Monday, November 05, 2012
One Last Look At Prediction Markets Before Tomorrow's Election
This is the latest prediction for tomorrow's election on Intrade. These predictions have been remarkably stable since October 1st, with only Florida changing from being likely to vote Democratic to now likely to vote Republican. Virginia and Colorado have shifted back and forth a bit over the past few weeks, but both are still predicted to go Democratic.
It will be interesting to see the final tally tomorrow night and compare it to Intrade's forecast over a month ago. If this map matches the final outcomes tomorrow, Intrade will have accurately predicted 49 out of the 50 states one month before the election.