Wednesday, November 07, 2012

How Did the Prediction Markets Do?

Below is a map showing the results of yesterday's elections.

And here is the map of prediction market forecasts I posted on October 1st.

Florida has yet to be called, but if it goes to Obama, then the prediction markets will have accurately forecasted 50 out of 50 states five weeks before the election.

Here is how the prediction markets fared in 2004 and 2008.  I'd say they nailed it yet again!

Read more of my posts on prediction markets here.

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