Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Clinton Has Her TENTH Straight Defeat

Ten defeats in a row for Clinton and the prediction markets have taken note!

Unless there is a major blunder in the Obama campaign, it looks like Hillary is toast. McCain has started to treat Obama as the Democratic candidate by starting to attack him on foreign policy.

Bill Clinton has been trying to badmouth Obama, saying he wasn't part of the 1990s. It's increasingly looking like Hillary won't be part of the 2000's.


thinking said...

I don't think the prediction markets are very predictive; they seem to be more reactive.

Thus, they should be called the "reaction" in this example, Obama keeps winning, and so now they react and forecast a win. It's like "predicting" the outcome of a sports contest after the final score.

I would be more impressed with the so called "prediction" markets if they had forecast this last year.

Brian Hollar said...

Prediction markets are like the stock market -- they react to news and new information. They are not magic, nor do they claim to be.

Prediction markets don't claim to be flawless predictors of outcomes and they do sometimes get things wrong, but across time they have better track records than anything else.