tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post3659419281105464670..comments2023-10-24T07:28:50.297-04:00Comments on Thinking on the Margin: Clinton Has Her TENTH Straight DefeatBrian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09365101283657395331noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-44976905360832500222008-02-21T02:30:00.000-05:002008-02-21T02:30:00.000-05:00Prediction markets are like the stock market -- th...Prediction markets are like the stock market -- they react to news and new information. They are not magic, nor do they claim to be.<BR/><BR/>Prediction markets don't claim to be flawless predictors of outcomes and they do sometimes get things wrong, but across time they have better track records than anything else.Brian Hollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-74724858116696748872008-02-20T22:02:00.000-05:002008-02-20T22:02:00.000-05:00I don't think the prediction markets are very pred...I don't think the prediction markets are very predictive; they seem to be more reactive.<BR/><BR/>Thus, they should be called the "reaction" markets...as in this example, Obama keeps winning, and so now they react and forecast a win. It's like "predicting" the outcome of a sports contest after the final score. <BR/><BR/>I would be more impressed with the so called "prediction" markets if they had forecast this last year.thinkinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06024721812573340354noreply@blogger.com