Monday, October 01, 2012

Prediction Markets: Obama Wins With 332 Electoral Votes

Tomorrow, I will teach my class about prediction markets.  With the presidential election just over a month away, below is my best estimate for how the election will go.  This is based 100% off of today's trading on Intrade.

To be clear, I am not only forecasting that Obama will be the winner, but that he will receive 332 electoral votes vs. 206 for Romney.

Prediction markets did a phenomenal job forecasting the election in 2004 and 2008, and I have every confidence they will do well this year too.

To be honest, between teaching, keeping up with other responsibilities at Marymount, and trying to finish up my dissertation, I haven't been keeping up with the election news. But as I will teach my class tomorrow, prices do such a great job economizing on information that I don't have to.

For more on prediction markets:


. said...

hi there,

absolutely fascinated with your blog, especially this Presidential prediction. wondering if you are going to give us an update. i am firmly on the left and curious to know if your assessments have changed over the last few weeks as i and a lot of other people are now sweating a romney term.


Brian Hollar said...

Hi Mark,

Thanks for the comments and kind words. I just posted the latest forecast.