Gallup's New Job Market Measure

Alan Krueger:

Every day Gallup polls 1,000 people and asks those who work: “Now thinking more generally about the company or business you work for, including all of its employees. Based on what you know or have seen, would you say that, in general, your company or employer is — 1) hiring new people and expanding the size of its workforce, 2) not changing the size of its work force, or 3) letting people go and reducing the size of its work force?”

The figure below displays a three-day moving average of responses to this question from January of this year until last week. Although it had been weakening all year long, it is clear that hiring collapsed in late August. Interestingly, companies began letting people go at a rising rate a bit earlier, starting around early July.