Above is the current prediction from HubDub using prediction market data. A breakdown of each state is shown below. This map hasn't budged at all since six weeks ago. I expect this to be the final outcome tomorrow with only Missouri and Indiana too close to call. If I had to guess now, Missouri will go to Obama (keeping up their nearly perfect 100-year track record) and Indiana will go for McCain. That would make the final tally Obama - 364 and McCain - 174.
Following prediction markets allowed me to call 48 out of 50 states in 2004, coming within 5 electoral votes of the final outcome. It will be interesting to see how well they perform this year.
See a great collection of the most recent poll data on FiveThirtyEight.
2 comments:
Hallelujah! At long last...
If Obama wins, the whole nation and the world will celebrate...it will be historic, and the national healing can begin.
The markets are tightening even more in favor of Obama. Our eyes are going to be on Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina.
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