Friday, January 04, 2008

Presidential Decision Markets

Robin Hanson:

We have had many prediction markets on who will be elected, but almost none on who should be elected. So far, the only exceptions I know are decision markets on which nominees would most help their party gain the U.S. presidency.

Today, I'm pleased to announce that Peter McCluskey has funded the creation of six now-live InTrade markets that should tell us how a Democratic versus Republican U.S. President will differently effect oil prices, long term interest rates, US government debt, and US troops in Iraq! If enough people trade these assets, then for voters who know which direction they want these parameters to move, InTrade market prices could advise them on how to vote!

Read the whole thing!

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