Wednesday, January 02, 2008

The Iowa Showdown: Zogby v. Intrade


Based on this prediction market information, my call is that it's going to be Obama and Huckabee winning in Iowa tomorrow.

Intrade

Zogby

Candidate

30%

28%

Clinton

54%

28%

Obama

16%

26%

Edwards

0%

7%

Richardson

0%

4%

Biden

0%

1%

Dodd

0%

1%

Kucinich

0%


FIELD

5%


Undecided

53%

28%

Huckabee

43%

26%

Romney

1%

12%

McCain

0%

12%

Thompson

0%

7%

Giuliani

0%

9%

Paul

0%

1%

Hunter

3%


FIELD

5%


Undecided

Zogby data is here. Intrade data taken at 930pm EST.

My bet is on the Intrade data. Last time I relied on them, I predicted 48 out of the 50 states in 2004 -- one month ahead of time.

Read another time prediction markets worked here.

Looks like Huckabee's Chuck Norris video really worked! It also looks like none of the liberarianish law profs will be pleased.

1 comment:

Jason Br. said...

If only that prediction were for the nominations...I would love to watch THAT general election play out.