Saturday, January 05, 2008

Iowa: The Median Voter Theorem in Action

What Huckabee did right and Hillary did wrong:

On the Democratic side, Obama - by winning in a totally white state - shows that racism is gone as a factor in American politics. On the Republican side, Huckabee's win shows how a truly compassionate conservative can win by harvesting voters who want the message of concern for the poor and for values to prevail.

But what of Hillary Clinton? She's down but not out. In the first really contested election of her own political career, she lost dismally - outclassed, outdrawn and outpolled by Obama.

Her campaign professionals (including Bill) decided to stress experience, precisely the wrong message in a Democratic primary. Prematurely appealing to the center and abandoning the left, she fell between two chairs - not sufficiently centrist to win independents or liberal enough to attract Democrats.

On the GOP side, Huckabee brought a new phenomenon into politics. A New Testament Christian politician, he takes the Biblical message to the center-left, clothing the naked and feeding the hungry. His refusal to indulge in negative advertising sent a message to Iowa voters showing his strength under fire.

...don't write off Obama or Huckabee. Their appeals are truly unique and obviously resonate with voters. Their approaches are now and the outcome shows how relevant their message is.

So does this mean Hillary is going to start swinging left? That seems like it would be the politically shrewd thing for her to do. This certainly looks like it will be an interesting election season.

Read about the median voter theorem and think about how it applies.


thinking said...

This is going to be a great election, because it will really shake things up over the status quo that clearly is not working. Obama will redefine the Democratic party and liberalism, and Huckabee will redefine the Republican party and conservatism. And that is all a good thing. I am amazed at some of the criticism that Huckabee has gotten from some on the right, like the folks at National Review. Clearly, the establishment doesn't like having its power disturbed.

thinking said...

I will also say that Obama and Huckabee gave incredible speeches after their victories in Iowa.

But Obama's speech reached a higher level. When it comes to speech making, Obama is right up there with JFK, RFK, Martin Luther King, and he is only getting better. Obama's speeches are just remarkable.

It's good to see the return of rhetoric and oratory back to politics.