Monday, October 01, 2007

The Monty Hall Problem

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Did you say no? If so, your answer is wrong. You actually double your odds of winning if you switch doors.

Don't believe me? Try it out yourself. I did and verified after 45 tries that I would have doubled my chances of winning if I switched every time.

Watch this video explanation from NUMB3RS:

Still confused? Here's a visual proof of the problem:

I don't know about you, but I find this is absolutely fascinating! Like they said on the NUMB3RS video, this is completely counter-intuitive -- but it works.

Whoever said math isn't cool?

(HT Grey Matters)

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