tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-220201632024-03-23T14:31:23.804-04:00 Thinking on the Margin<i>"What saves a man is to take a step.<br>
Then another step." ~ C. S. Lewis</i>Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09365101283657395331noreply@blogger.comBlogger5147125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-87607425325901857722017-10-16T21:26:00.002-04:002017-10-17T00:29:21.415-04:00Nobel Prize Winner, Richard Thaler<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><img height="411" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/jyC2zsQJnYGN6zThYvi3uFRWatK6UnWzOnRSyNOEl3Y4qss5ShMEbiZ_dIHk45BD3uKt6KuUWXu7ovR4SX6kynm0RwkdYQIYFSP-oDFVCDx5Ta9q9DemB_65YfairjGF0nevuFTlFC8" width="640" /></span><br />
<br />
This is a week late, but here is a little info on Richard Thaler who won the Nobel Prize in Economics last week for his work in behavioral economics.<br />
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">
<ul>
<li>Thaler's work essentially combines psychology and economics, incorporating many systematic biases people make in decision-making into economics.</li>
<li>Thaler is one of the pioneers of behavioral economics, along with psychologists Daniel Khaneman (who won the Nobel Prize in 2002 - the first psychologist to do so) and Amos Tversky (who passed away in 1996).</li>
<ul>
<li>Thaler says he taught Khaneman and Tversky economics and they taught him psychology while they were all at Stanford together.</li>
<li>Khaneman and Tversky are the subject of Michael Lewis' recent book <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Undoing-Project-Friendship-Changed-Minds/dp/0393254593" style="color: #1155cc;">The Undoing Project</a></i>.</li>
</ul>
<li>Thaler's work spans a wide range of application and has had large influence on public policy in both the United States and United Kingdom. His work impacts default options on retirement plans and organ donations. In the UK, his work helped inspire the <a href="http://www.behaviouralinsights.co.uk/" style="color: #1155cc;">Behavioural Insights Team</a>, a government unit that uses explores how behavioral economics can better inform British policies.</li>
<li>Thaler recently wrote a book, <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00NUB4GFQ/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1" style="color: #1155cc;">Misbehaving</a></i>, about his journey into behavioral economics. This was required reading in my Behavioral Economics class last year and enjoyed by students who found it very accessible. (I'd also highly recommend Khaneman's <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman-ebook/dp/B00555X8OA/ref=pd_sim_351_4?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=VGM57GRQY6YXG8RF4VTG" style="color: #1155cc;">Thinking, Fast and Slow</a></i> which students also enjoyed.)</li>
<li>Thaler also co-authored the book, <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Nudge-Improving-Decisions-Health-Happiness-ebook/dp/B00A5DCALY/ref=pd_sim_351_1?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=B2G9YTQ9QDC0QATAYB81&dpID=41Yzb5bYfzL&preST=_SY445_QL70_&dpSrc=detail" style="color: #1155cc;">Nudge</a></i>, with Cass Sunstein in which they outline many of their ideas for how behavioral economics can be used by policy makers to help improve social outcomes in a wide variety of settings.</li>
<li>Thaler and Khaneman both contributed to the discovery of the <a href="https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Endowment_effect" style="color: #1155cc;">Endowment Effect</a> (along with Knetsch) which demonstrates that people value things more after they own them than they do before they own, contradicting assumptions made by traditional economic theory. This is background to the <a href="https://twitter.com/jonmladd/status/917374560751837184" style="color: #1155cc;">funniest tweet</a> I've seen about Thaler's prize so far:</li>
<ul>
<li><i><b><span style="color: #990000;">"Now that Thaler has his Nobel Prize, he values it much more than he did before."</span></b></i></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
Here is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEXTqtH-Oo4&feature=youtu.be&t=1m31s" style="color: #1155cc;">a 2-minute video clip</a> of Thaler's appearance in <i>The Big Short,</i> where he explains how overconfidence in risk-taking contributed to the financial crisis in 2007-2008.<br />
<br /></div>
</div>
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EEXTqtH-Oo4?rel=0&start=91" width="560"></iframe><br />
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">
<br /></div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">
For more on Thaler's contributions to economics, I recommend:</div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">
<ul>
<li>Listening to this <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p05jvyp8" style="color: #1155cc;">23-minute podcast</a> by Tim Harford on Thaler's work, including an 8-minute clip of an interview with Thaler from several years ago.</li>
<li>Reading blog posts by <a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2017/10/nobel-prize-awarded-richard-thaler.html" style="color: #1155cc;">Tyler Cowen</a> and <a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2017/10/richard-thaler-wins-nobel.html" style="color: #1155cc;">Alex Tabarrok</a> (our Principles of Economics textbook authors) about Thaler's work.</li>
<li>Reading this <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/13/business/economy/richard-thaler-nobel-silly-but-serious.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot" style="color: #1155cc;">New York Times interview with Thaler</a> after he won the Nobel Prize.</li>
<li>Following Richard Thaler on <a href="https://twitter.com/R_Thaler" style="color: #1155cc;">Twitter</a>.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">
I'm a big fan of Thaler's work and am excited to see him win the Prize.</div>
Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-27304371535735741362016-12-31T18:26:00.001-05:002016-12-31T18:26:54.347-05:00Much to Be Happy About in 2016<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Max Roser on why we have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/12/29/stop-saying-that-2016-was-the-worst-year/?utm_term=.8739091bb1a9">much to be optimistic about last year</a>. There is a strong negativity bias in the news reported by the media and in the news remembered by individuals.</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>The consequence of this is that we have no knowledge about the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/world-poverty/">poverty</a>, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/health-meta/">poor health</a> and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/slides/war-and-violence/#/title-slide">the often high levels of violence</a> that characterized our past. It is this ignorance that makes it possible to tell stories of decline, because it means that we are unaware of how inconceivably exceptional our current living conditions are from the perspective of our ancestors.</i> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>The story that we tell about ourselves is the most important story of all. Journalists and intellectuals who almost exclusively focus on what goes wrong risks us losing our faith in one another, and that faith is the essential foundation without which our ideal of a free and democratic society is impossible. A constant supply of news that make us afraid with little to instill trust in one another and in our institutions has always been the best press demagogues can hope for.</i> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>Freedom is impossible without faith in free people, and if we are not aware of our history and produce and demand only the information on what goes wrong, we risk to lose faith in one another.</i></blockquote>
Roser also has an excellent post highlighting <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-global-living-conditions-in-5-charts/">how living conditions have changed around the world over the last 200 years</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>The headline could be “The number of people in extreme poverty fell by 130,000 since yesterday.”</i> </blockquote>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQI9fIVMXlXyLEFOyhX0DYOUlJBxUxdUAQymQ0wIdQGQJ7t3YS8vO0a_zNqjAl3N2stxK7Z7KjAOlaPUjU6I3bvf6yaY3iLTFvSFukDhWtaWP__QgJ_RA9CWG2YCdFimjjU9m9/s1600/200_years_of_data.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQI9fIVMXlXyLEFOyhX0DYOUlJBxUxdUAQymQ0wIdQGQJ7t3YS8vO0a_zNqjAl3N2stxK7Z7KjAOlaPUjU6I3bvf6yaY3iLTFvSFukDhWtaWP__QgJ_RA9CWG2YCdFimjjU9m9/s400/200_years_of_data.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
The Guardian also explains why<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/30/eight-charts-that-show-2016-wasnt-as-bad-as-you-think"> 2016 isn't as bad as you think</a>.<br />
<br />
There is much good news going on around the world and much to be thankful for and happy about.<br />
<br />
Wishing everyone a very Happy New Year and a great start to 2017!Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-39554836799791541492015-10-13T17:08:00.002-04:002015-10-13T23:55:41.403-04:00Nobel Prize in Economics Awarded to Angus DeatonI'm currently down in Panama to investigate bringing students down here over spring break next semester for my <a href="http://www.marymount.edu/Academics/Services-Resources/Center-for-Global-Education/Education-Abroad/Global-Classroom-Series/ECO-350-The-Economics-of-Poverty">Economics of Poverty</a> class. I returned to Panama City from the Panamanian countryside yesterday to discover that the Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Angus Deaton. Much of Deaton's work involves developing better ways to measure the standard of living of the poor and the impact of economic progress around the world.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/angus-deaton-a-skeptical-optimist-wins-the-economics-nobel" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">The New Yorker</a> has a nice write-up about Deaton and his work. Here are summaries by <a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/10/nobel-prize-winner-is-angus-deaton.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Tyler Cowen</a> and <a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/10/deaton.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Alex Tabarrok</a>. The Nobel committee also has nice <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2015/popular-economicsciences2015.pdf" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">non-technical</a> and <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2015/advanced-economicsciences2015.pdf" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">technic<wbr></wbr>al</a> summaries of his work and why it matters. <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/22/books/review/angus-deatons-great-escape.html?_r=0" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">David Leonhardt</a> also had a great review of Deaton's work in the New York Times.<br />
<br />
Deaton's work is a great example of how to apply economics in ways that help us better understand the world.<br />
<br />
P.S. -- Christopher Blattman in Foreign Policy explains <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/12/why-angus-deaton-deserved-the-nobel-prize-in-economics/">why Angus Deaton deserved the Nobel Prize in Economics.</a><br />
<br />
P.P.S. -- Here is a great YouTube video of Deaton discussing his ideas:<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/t-Ax2sKhDrY" width="560"></iframe>Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-73824406213368143702014-05-04T13:17:00.003-04:002014-05-04T13:17:41.429-04:00Gary Becker Has Passed Away<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-LLOwvklVj-d7dwAcZqUDyCzlwcze4J-8vLPuv6XoqeHIccBwuqcc10RX0VyMgI39mnfFTeRDbXCDkmMMPOMWkUqmZnCLVSiPZ0occ4jsU1REuAFrzVakYstU-dhO6Qyx15Hp/s1600/becker.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-LLOwvklVj-d7dwAcZqUDyCzlwcze4J-8vLPuv6XoqeHIccBwuqcc10RX0VyMgI39mnfFTeRDbXCDkmMMPOMWkUqmZnCLVSiPZ0occ4jsU1REuAFrzVakYstU-dhO6Qyx15Hp/s1600/becker.jpg" height="200" width="158" /></a></div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.31999969482422px;">Nobel Prize winning economist <a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.fr/2014/05/very-sad-news.html">Gary Becker has passed away</a>. My dissertation drew heavily from his work on the economics of marriage and on Larry Iannaccone's work on economics of religion. Iannacone was a student of Becker's and I was a student of Iannaccone's. Although I never had the chance to meet him, I have always felt like Becker was like an intellectual grandfather to me. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.31999969482422px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.31999969482422px;">Becker was a great pioneer for pushing the boundaries of topics studied using economics. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.31999969482422px;">His book, <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Economics-Life-Affirmative-Immigration/dp/0070067090">The Economics of Life</a></i>, was one of the first economics books I ever read and helped get me hooked by demonstrating the breadth of issues economics gave insight into. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.31999969482422px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.31999969482422px;">He will be missed.</span>Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-48454149229321975932013-11-28T10:22:00.000-05:002013-11-28T13:00:42.425-05:00Chipotle... and Other Things I'm Thankful For<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrKdIdulWKtQY_Vl73VWI6NDDJipI4WXg3pDx18xeatPQJf5fmOk7rMTCXqdPdn1_jBu8D5aCpIwQPLgwxj_u5qEvG3DAJC3h1LcshLVVMKXgOhvhZiYwpP0JXrSRybaiN5Y-d5Q/s1600-h/chipotle.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5273015894857423794" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrKdIdulWKtQY_Vl73VWI6NDDJipI4WXg3pDx18xeatPQJf5fmOk7rMTCXqdPdn1_jBu8D5aCpIwQPLgwxj_u5qEvG3DAJC3h1LcshLVVMKXgOhvhZiYwpP0JXrSRybaiN5Y-d5Q/s320/chipotle.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; float: right; height: 232px; margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; width: 320px;" /></a>A few of the things I'm thankful for this Thanksgiving:<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Faith</span> -- I'm incredibly thankful for my Christian faith. It shapes the core of who I am, gives me purpose and meaning, and a confidence that all things will work out in the end and fills my life with joy, hope and love.<br />
</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Family </span>-- Being so close to them both relationally and physically. To have a family that loves you is one of the most precious gifts anyone could ask for.</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Friends </span>-- Those in Virginia and around DC, those in Orlando, and those all over the world. I am truly blessed by all of them.<br />
</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Freedom </span>-- I feel blessed to have not only the civil liberties, but by the breadth of opportunities we have in America. There are very few things I would want to do that I am not free to do. I never fully appreciated this until I started traveling to places where this is not true.<br />
</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Technology </span>-- I truly marvel at the many wonders of the Internet, cellular phones, computers, medicine, air transportation, electricity, indoor plumbing, incandescent lighting, automobiles, GPS, iPods, etc. It changes our lives in so many tremendous ways. Thinking about how much the world has changed in the last 100 years makes me feel blessed to live in the time we live in. Being a gadget lover makes the rapid advance of technology all the more enjoyable. I'm thankful for the enjoyment too.<br />
</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Travel </span>-- I've been able to travel to all 50 states, 37 countries, and all 7 continents. There are few things I love more than travel and have been truly blessed in how much of the world I've been able to see.</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Education </span>-- I also feel incredibly blessed to have been able to have had the opportunities to pursue most of the intellectual pursuits I've wanted and the funding to make it possible. <a href="http://thinkingonthemargin.blogspot.com/2012/11/i-am-now-officially-dr-hollar.html">Today is my one year anniversary of officially becoming Dr. Hollar.</a></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Wealth </span>-- Chances are if you're reading this blog, you're one of the wealthiest people to have ever walked the face of this planet. We live in a time of unprecedented abundance -- much of it so ubiquitous we don't even notice it (see the list of technology above). Our lifespans are longer, our opportunities greater, and many things in life are far more convenient than at any time in human history. I may not have all the stuff I'd like to buy, but there is very little I don't have that I truly need.<br />
</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Health </span>-- I am incredibly thankful for my health and to having been nearly doctor-free for years. I'm nearly in the best shape of my life and in the last 3 years <a href="http://thinkingonthemargin.blogspot.com/search/label/weight%20loss">lost and kept off 30 pounds</a> and <a href="http://thinkingonthemargin.blogspot.com/search/label/triathlon">run my first triathlon</a>.</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Job</span> -- I absolutely love my job as a <a href="http://www.marymount.edu/spotlightDetails.aspx?Channel=%2FChannels%2FSite+Wide+Content&WorkflowItemID=14bf3f57-2dfe-4c83-9953-3cb3bdeb9b88">professor</a> at Marymount University and am blessed with wonderful students, supportive colleagues, and the ability to teach a subject that I truly believe is meaningful to understand and practical for careers. I get paid to do what I love and can't imagine anything I would rather spend my life doing.</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: bold;">America </span>-- I love my country and the ideals it represents. The more I learn about the founding of the country, the more I feel gratitude and indebtedness for the liberty and institutions that support it that has been passed to this generation of Americans. Our country is not perfect by any means, but I am thankful for our nation and my cultural heritage. There is no other place or time I'd rather live.<br />
</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Humor </span>-- I'm grateful for the ability to laugh and to see humor in life.
</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Economics </span>-- The more I study economics, the more it helps me appreciate the things I have, the wonderfulness of markets, prosperity, and liberty. Next to my Christian faith, I don't think there anything else I have learned that has had a more profound impact on helping me understand and appreciate the things I am blessed with in this life.<br />
</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Where I Live</span> -- I'm currently living in Arlington, Virginia -- two blocks away from the subway, a 10-minute walk to work, and at the footsteps of our nation's capital. I can walk to just about any store or restaurant I want and ride the Metro to anyplace not walking distance from here. As far as pure location goes, this is the best place I have ever lived. (Although living 20-minutes from Disney World had it's perks too.) I am thankful to have a roof over my head, a warm shelter, and a nice place to study, sleep, and relax. Being an hour from mom and dad's and even closer to my brother and his family makes this almost perfect.<br />
</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Chipotle </span>-- This may sound funny, but to me, Chipotle represents the variety and abundance of high-quality, cheap food we have all around us. A trip to Wegman's or your local grocery store underscores this. I've never gone hungry in my life nor have most of my friends. This is incredible by historical (and world) standards and something else I am truly grateful for. In fact, I had my last pre-Thanksgiving meal there and it was good!<br />
</li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: 130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">I am truly blessed.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #660000; font-size: 180%; font-weight: bold;">Wishing everyone a very happy Thanksgiving!</span><br />
<br />
<i>(NOTE: This is a modified version of a post I originally wrote in <a href="http://thinkingonthemargin.blogspot.com/2008/11/chipotle-and-other-things-im-thankful.html">2008</a>.)</i>Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-85811146367673957372013-05-08T01:19:00.000-04:002013-08-09T19:24:57.989-04:00Eight Days In Maui, No Overhead Bin Required<p><img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BJtyswWCMAAsKk8.jpg:large" width=600 /></p><p>Traveled eight days in Maui without using an overhead bin on the way out or back. My GORUCK GR1 fit under the seat in front of me both ways. Had everything I needed for my academic conference, adventures through heat, wet, and cold, and lounging around the resort.</p><p>Packed inside the GR1:</p><ul><li>clothing for an academic conference (long khakis, shorts, tie, two Hawaiian shirts)</li>
<li>Eagle Creek Pack-It Folder 18</li>
<li>headlamp</li>
<li>bathing suit</li>
<li>SeV Performance T-Shirt</li>
<li>Patagonia long sleeve wool t-shirt (for sunrise at Haleakala)</li>
<li>Patagonia Nano Puff (for sunrise at Haleakala)</li>
<li><strike>Patagonia Torrentshell Parka (for sunrise at Haleakala)</strike></li>
<li>Merrell Trail Glove running shoes (pack down to nothing)</li>
<li>1 pair SmartWool black sock liners (make great daily wear socks & thin enough to dry quickly)</li>
<li>1 pair SmartWool running socks</li>
<li>Black Diamond Bbee daypack</li>
<li>iPad</li>
<li>Zagg Keyboard for iPad</li>
<li><strike>MacBook Air 11"</strike></li>
<li><span>1 pair of ExOfficio boxers</span></li>
<li><strike>1 pair of triathlon shorts (can be used as backup bathing suit and backup boxers)</strike></li>
<li>miscellaneous academic articles</li>
<li>sunglasses</li>
<li><strike>headlamp</strike></li>
<li><strike>Amphipod running belt</strike></li>
<li>Thin, plastic folder to keep academic articles and receipts</li>
<li>Various pens and highlighters</li>
<li>small notepad</li>
<li>Ziploc full of toiletries (toothbrush, toothpaste, deodorant, shaving cream, hair gel)</li>
<li>Seat to Summit Trek and Travel Pocket Laundry Wash (for washing clothes in the sink)</li>
<li>various cables, connectors, batteries, headphones, and chargers for electronics</li>
<li><strike>collapsable Patagonia tote/shopping bag</strike></li>
<li><strike>monocular</strike></li>
</ul><p>What I wore:</p><ul><li>long-sleeve button up shirt</li>
<li>short-sleeve SmartWool t-shirt</li>
<li>blue jeans</li>
<li>ExOfficio boxers</li>
<li>SmartWool black sock liners</li>
<li>SeV Travel Vest</li>
<li>Patagonia R1</li>
<li>Sanuk Pick Pocket shoes</li>
</ul><p>In my SeV Travel Vest:</p><ul><li>Kindle Touch</li>
<li>Sony RX-100 camera</li>
<li><em>Maui Revealed</em> guidebook</li>
<li>iPhone</li>
</ul><p>Made it there and back without checking luggage or using the overhead bin. Items <strike>crossed out</strike> were things I either never used or used for a grand total of ~ 10 minutes for the whole trip. Surprised not to need to MacBook Air (iPad + external keyboard + LogMeIn + desktop PC in office = good enough). Didn't use my Patagonia Torrentshell, but would have been handy had I put it on before waiting in the high-winds at 5 AM the top of Haleakala, waiting for sunrise.</p><p>I should note that on all flights, I had an aisle seat which meant my space under the seat in front of me was narrower than other seats. The GR1 still fit underneath without any problem.</p><p>Had to wash socks and undies to dry overnight each day, but totally worth it. (Took less than 5-minutes per day.) Picked up suntan lotion on the island. Still had room to spare to bring back a few small souvenirs on the way home.</p><p>This kit kept me well-prepared for work, conference events, making an academic presentation, snorkeling, hiking through bamboo forests, enduring near-freezing temperatures (although my feet did get a little chilly -- should have doubled up my socks), five hours on horseback, relaxing at the resort, paddleboarding, and more. Had everything I needed. Brought several things I didn't use. Nothing left at home that I wish I had brought.</p><p>Pack light. Travel fast. No better way to go.</p>Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-43530668210611592462013-02-22T13:36:00.002-05:002013-02-22T13:36:47.512-05:00Incredible Decrease in Child Mortality Worldwide in Last 50 YearsAnother fantastic video by <a href="http://thinkingonthemargin.blogspot.com/search?q=hans+rosling">Hans Rosling</a>, showing the incredible decrease in child-mortality around the world in the last 50 years. Along this dimension, the world truly is becoming a better place.<br />
<br />
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/OwII-dwh-bk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe><br />
<i>(HT <a href="http://www.freakonomics.com/2013/02/22/taking-on-the-myths-of-child-mortality/">Freakonomics</a>)</i>Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-65708136328703513982013-02-19T08:02:00.000-05:002013-02-19T08:02:00.355-05:00Principles of Macroeconomics: Every Graph You Need to Know<iframe width="600" height="450" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/YOMbRCywqCs" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-26088227895568488912013-02-18T10:01:00.000-05:002013-02-18T10:01:00.114-05:00The Top 10 Mistakes You Make When Trying to Change Your Behavior<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="486" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" mozallowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" src="http://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/6401325" style="border-width: 1px 1px 0; border: 1px solid #CCC; margin-bottom: 5px;" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="597"> </iframe><br />
<br />
<b>Related:</b><br />
<ul><li><a href="http://www.bakadesuyo.com/2012/05/what-10-things-should-you-do-every-day-to-imp/">What 10 things should you do every day to improve your life?</a></li>
<li><a href="http://zenhabits.net/habitses/">The four habits that form habits. </a></li>
</ul><br />
<i>(HT <a href="http://www.bakadesuyo.com/2011/08/what-are-the-top-ten-mistakes-you-make-when-t/">Eric Barker</a>)</i>Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-24454957802190145352013-02-18T08:47:00.000-05:002013-02-18T08:47:00.346-05:00The Economics of Why Children Inherit Their Last Names From Their Father, Not Their Mother<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAnZtLetCg_N2dbEOS3oIsS7-7GJmlZQZ7Td125KcM5xDQHViRBKuLHlLWygVrwBq_Z5Cso5XC_iIDENHeCmI79W6DOacna3CSLYcf-M_PIdPstp_Ei_q-AIe3BBIZKLvd_dyB/s1600/patneral_investment.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAnZtLetCg_N2dbEOS3oIsS7-7GJmlZQZ7Td125KcM5xDQHViRBKuLHlLWygVrwBq_Z5Cso5XC_iIDENHeCmI79W6DOacna3CSLYcf-M_PIdPstp_Ei_q-AIe3BBIZKLvd_dyB/s320/patneral_investment.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
It helps <a href="http://bigthink.com/e-pur-si-muove/why-children-must-inherit-their-last-names-from-their-father-not-their-mother">ensure the investment of fathers</a> in the context of paternal uncertainty:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i><b>Fathers are therefore expected to invest more heavily in children who bear their last names than children who bear the mother’s last names, because they are more likely to be convinced of their paternity.</b> As a result, ceteris paribus, children who inherit their last names from their fathers are expected to be more likely to survive and thrive than children who inherit their last names from their mothers. Like polyandry, the social institution of matrilineal inheritance of last names contains the seeds of its own extinction. <b>Societies with such an institution are less likely to survive and thrive, because their children are less likely to survive and thrive, which explains why most known human cultures practice patrilineal inheritance of last names, not their matrilineal inheritance</b> or even the system that vos Savant advocates. Worse yet, fathers in societies with the social institution that vos Savant advocates are expected to invest preferentially in sons over daughters, and thus girls are expected to be worse off than boys in such societies.</i></blockquote>
Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-24874472279190239032013-02-18T08:24:00.000-05:002013-02-18T11:03:35.035-05:00One of These Things Is Not Like the Other<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9p0urrQimsOARnwl5AIQOgHzsLPKuzCQh1dYzbByJ5NZ8BqCAksEesXAmq1nbnumy6u7EOV6WMuzTNZo7faGPMIoNLmr38U3-k-uned8BJbq-NuRJSMZlO_BRNFMUsuyBzhfy/s1600/theoretical_math.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9p0urrQimsOARnwl5AIQOgHzsLPKuzCQh1dYzbByJ5NZ8BqCAksEesXAmq1nbnumy6u7EOV6WMuzTNZo7faGPMIoNLmr38U3-k-uned8BJbq-NuRJSMZlO_BRNFMUsuyBzhfy/s1600/theoretical_math.jpg" /></a></div><i>(via <a href="https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/302200259247996928/photo/1">Noah Smith</a>)</i>Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-74373759832298908132013-02-17T15:14:00.000-05:002013-02-17T15:18:49.633-05:00Is America Becoming More Diverse?<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0Xw6dHNEmL8JakZl0IDC1Kke976QmYqmZGnNLeF-wNT0XQ9FVx-6ktwiJvteGA0ij0tGILwrUgbgLR4Okv-ctNPChvw-AYaMnBM6QyLtq2yyXnZGq8a_VwKtvCywGwKJvsqOA/s1600/race-ethnic-diversity.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0Xw6dHNEmL8JakZl0IDC1Kke976QmYqmZGnNLeF-wNT0XQ9FVx-6ktwiJvteGA0ij0tGILwrUgbgLR4Okv-ctNPChvw-AYaMnBM6QyLtq2yyXnZGq8a_VwKtvCywGwKJvsqOA/s1600/race-ethnic-diversity.jpg" /></a></div><br />
Philip Cohen takes <a href="http://familyinequality.wordpress.com/2013/02/17/data-visualizations-is-u-s-society-becoming-more-diverse/">a fascinating look</a> at how America's population has changed since 1972 -- broken down by religion, race, marital status, and age of first marriage. Lots of changes and increasing diversity on all fronts.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>There are various ways of constructing a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diversity_index" target="_blank">diversity index</a>, but I use the one sometimes called the Blau index, which is easy to calculate and has a nice interpretation: the probability that two randomly selected individuals are from different groups...</i><br />
<br />
<i>I have complained before that using the 1950s or thereabouts as a benchmark is misleading because it was an unusual period, marked by high conformity, especially with regard to family matters. But it is still the case that since then diversity on a number of important measures has increased. Over the period of several generations, in important ways the people we randomly encounter are more likely to be different from ourselves (and each other).</i></blockquote>Read the whole thing. Lots of interesting graphs. Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-59286455753787602032013-02-09T20:55:00.000-05:002013-02-09T20:55:01.515-05:00What to Expect When No One's Expecting<iframe frameborder="0" height="288" scrolling="no" src="http://live.wsj.com/public/page/embed-FF10307B_DD95_492F_B747_BEDAE579765C.html" width="512"></iframe><br />
<br />
The title of <a href="http://www.amazon.com/What-Expect-When-Ones-Expecting/dp/1594036411">a new book</a> by <a href="http://jonathanlast.com/">Jonathan Last</a> on the declining fertility rates in America and the negative impacts this will have on American society and economy. Here is Last writing in the <i><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323375204578270053387770718.html">Wall Street Journal:</a></i><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>The fertility rate is the number of children an average woman bears over the course of her life. The replacement rate is 2.1. If the average woman has more children than that, population grows. Fewer, and it contracts. Today, America's total fertility rate is 1.93, according to the latest figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; it hasn't been above the replacement rate in a sustained way since the early 1970s.</i> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>The nation's falling fertility rate underlies many of our most difficult problems. Once a country's fertility rate falls consistently below replacement, its age profile begins to shift. You get more old people than young people. And eventually, as the bloated cohort of old people dies off, population begins to contract. This dual problem—a population that is disproportionately old and shrinking overall—has enormous economic, political and cultural consequences...</i> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>Low-fertility societies don't innovate because their incentives for consumption tilt overwhelmingly toward health care. They don't invest aggressively because, with the average age skewing higher, capital shifts to preserving and extending life and then begins drawing down. They cannot sustain social-security programs because they don't have enough workers to pay for the retirees. They cannot project power because they lack the money to pay for defense and the military-age manpower to serve in their armed forces.</i></blockquote>
Read the whole thing.<br />
<br />
<i>(HT <a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/02/what-to-expect-when-youre-not-expecting.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+marginalrevolution%2Ffeed+%28Marginal+Revolution%29&utm_content=Google+Reader">Tyler Cowen</a>)</i>Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-90327899409920608682012-11-28T23:51:00.000-05:002012-11-29T00:02:18.048-05:00I Am Now Officially Dr. Hollar!<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWGV70Zh76zjQZAxQzu5r86EcTxhbooAPAb7E8rWi66EO2E7LYHeujDVsVUk0hn4EBoaUUhOwM8Xf-xxU95tZgdkBxcHg0MZriVTH3fZZD5LTaaDcfdHpJnIR_hpp8T-qz8xta/s1600/Holy+Matrimony+Batman+600.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWGV70Zh76zjQZAxQzu5r86EcTxhbooAPAb7E8rWi66EO2E7LYHeujDVsVUk0hn4EBoaUUhOwM8Xf-xxU95tZgdkBxcHg0MZriVTH3fZZD5LTaaDcfdHpJnIR_hpp8T-qz8xta/s1600/Holy+Matrimony+Batman+600.jpg" /></a></div><br />
I successfully defended my dissertation earlier today and am now officially Dr. Hollar! It has a been a long road getting here, but a journey I am very happy to have both started and finished.<br />
<br />
The image above is the introductory slide for my defense presentation. I decided to have a little fun with it.<br />
<br />
I am profoundly grateful to my dissertation committee, to GMU, and to all my family and friends who supported me these past few years. And a special word of thanks to <a href="http://www.marymount.edu/">Marymount University</a> who not only provided me with a faculty position prior to graduation, but also gave me the time and support to successfully finish my PhD. I continue to feel like I landed a dream job in a dream location.<br />
<br />
Next stop, tenure!Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-31330050255201568172012-11-26T16:17:00.001-05:002012-11-26T16:17:36.303-05:00Tyler Cowen's Favorite Non-Ficton Books of 2012<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-yjNU3UUX0UKQ1fiqWNWzBtZfsZoRSMYNU91wWUAUBkaOEBIbZ0i25D0wDKxBN0woTm3X8gNxvKnSdF4SxYna-YU24J0EGwx-Nn9OItW0REDYwCdBXEVSEcltVuq_NuQ3-8-C/s1600/books.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-yjNU3UUX0UKQ1fiqWNWzBtZfsZoRSMYNU91wWUAUBkaOEBIbZ0i25D0wDKxBN0woTm3X8gNxvKnSdF4SxYna-YU24J0EGwx-Nn9OItW0REDYwCdBXEVSEcltVuq_NuQ3-8-C/s320/books.jpg" width="210" /></a></div>
<a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/11/my-favorite-non-fiction-books-of-2012.html">Tyler Cowen</a> shares his picks:<br />
<ul>
<li><i>Laurent Dubois, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Haiti-Aftershocks-History-Laurent-Dubois/dp/0805093354/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1353372956&sr=1-1&keywords=haiti+aftershocks+of+history/marginalrevol-20">Haiti: The Aftershocks of History</a>.</i></li>
<li><i>Charles Murray, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Coming-Apart-State-America-1960-2010/dp/0307453421/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1353372994&sr=1-1&keywords=charles+murray+coming+apart+the+state+of+white+america/marginalrevol-20">Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960-2010</a>.</i></li>
<li><i>David Hackett Fischer, <a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/02/more-on-fairness-and-freedom-by-david-hackett-fischer.html/">Fairness and Freedom: A History of Two Open Societies: New Zealand and the United States</a>.</i></li>
<li><i>George Dyson, <a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/03/turings-cathedral.html">Turing’s Cathedral: The Origins of the Digital Universe</a>.</i></li>
<li><i>Jon Gertner, <a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/03/the-idea-factory.html">The Idea Factory: Bell Labs and the Great Age of American Innovation</a>.</i></li>
<li><i>Michael Dirda, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Conan-Doyle-Whole-Storytelling-Writers/dp/0691151350/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1353373225&sr=1-3&keywords=michael+dirda/marginalrevol-20">On Conan Doyle: Or, The Whole Art of Storytelling</a>.</i></li>
<li><i>James Fallows, <a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/05/china-airborne.html">China Airborne</a>.</i></li>
<li><i>Greg Woolf, <a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/07/rome-an-empires-story.html">Rome: An Empire’s Story</a>.</i></li>
<li><i>Odd Arne Westad, <a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/08/restless-empire.html">Restless Empire: China and the World Since 1750</a>.</i></li>
<li><i>Robert D. Kaplan, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Revenge-Geography-Coming-Conflicts-Against/dp/1400069831/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1353373941&sr=1-1&keywords=robert+kaplan/marginalrevol-20">The Revenge of Geography</a>.</i></li>
<li><i>Barry Eichengreen, Dwight H. Perkins, and Khanho Shin, <a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/10/why-are-growth-declines-sharp-and-sudden.html">From Miracle to Maturity: The Growth of the Korean Economy</a>.</i></li>
</ul>
<a href="http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/non-fiction-books-of-the-year/">Arnold Kling</a> adds to the list. <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<em>My additions to the list would include James Manzi’s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Uncontrolled-Surprising-Trial---Error-Business/dp/046502324X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1353964241&sr=8-1&keywords=uncontrolled">Uncontrolled</a>, Enrico Moretti’s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/New-Geography-Jobs-Enrico-Moretti/dp/0547750110/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1353964278&sr=1-1&keywords=new+geography+of+jobs">The New Geography of Jobs</a> (in my opinion, one cannot put Murray on the list and leave out Moretti), Bruce Schneier’s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Liars-Outliers-Enabling-Society-Thrive/dp/1118143302/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1353964306&sr=1-1&keywords=liars+and+outliers">Liars and Outliers</a>
(that one does not seem to have impressed anyone else I know), Paul
Reid’s completion of William Manchester’s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Last-Lion-Winston-Churchill-1874-1932/dp/0385313489/ref=la_B000AQ26Q0_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1353964365&sr=1-3">three</a>-<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Last-Lion-Winston-Churchill-1932-1940/dp/0316545120/ref=la_B000AQ26Q0_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1353964365&sr=1-2">volume</a> <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Last-Lion-Churchill-Defender-1940-1965/dp/0316547700/ref=la_B000AQ26Q0_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1353964365&sr=1-1">biography</a> of
Winston Churchill, and Jonathan Haidt’s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Righteous-Mind-Divided-Politics-Religion/dp/0307377903/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1353964453&sr=1-1&keywords=righteous+mind">The Righteous Mind</a> (this is on an even higher plane, in my opinion–a candidate for book of the decade? See my <a href="http://www.american.com/archive/2012/april/the-tribal-mind-moral-reasoning-and-public-discourse">review essay</a>.)</em></blockquote>
I'm afraid I've been too busy working on my dissertation this past year to have much to add. Hope to remedy that next year. In the meantime, I just added Murray's <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Coming-Apart-State-America-1960-2010/dp/0307453421/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1353964528&sr=1-1&keywords=coming+apart"><i>Coming Apart</i></a> and Haidt's <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Righteous-Mind-Divided-Politics-Religion/dp/0307377903/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1353964453&sr=1-1&keywords=righteous+mind"><i>The Righteous Mind</i></a> to my reading list.<br />
Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-18961393658015498522012-11-07T23:26:00.005-05:002012-11-07T23:26:58.502-05:00Everything You Need to Know About the Fiscal Cliff<iframe frameborder="0" height="288" scrolling="no" src="http://live.wsj.com/public/page/embed-EE994540_68DA_4374_81FE_287A76422E5C.html" width="512"></iframe><br />
<br />
<a href="http://live.wsj.com/public/page/video-popup.html?currentPlayingLocation=408&currentlyPlayingCollection=Business&currentlyPlayingVideoId={EE994540-68DA-4374-81FE-287A76422E5C}">The Wall Street Journal:</a><br />
<blockquote>
<i>Last August, President Obama and Congress put the U.S. economy on course to go over a "fiscal cliff." WSJ's David Wessel tells you everything you need to know about the "cliff" but were afraid to ask.</i></blockquote>
<i>(HT <a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-fiscal-cliff-primer.html">Greg Mankiw</a>)</i>Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-53487217234766430392012-11-07T11:23:00.001-05:002012-11-07T11:29:56.080-05:00How Did the Prediction Markets Do?Below is a map showing the results of yesterday's elections.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0jilBdYNJU3RLn7zOgWPDFzq2ZwFfuINBhyphenhyphenrD6k0F22TiLma3kt-EbQm3RZhVG4x7dfaeUn55rTrRk2WSFN6hq9plLM4BG0Xt4PRMygfwzyMHVrBhSGe8LiA6x9nOtNoQ_Yi8/s1600/election_results_2012.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0jilBdYNJU3RLn7zOgWPDFzq2ZwFfuINBhyphenhyphenrD6k0F22TiLma3kt-EbQm3RZhVG4x7dfaeUn55rTrRk2WSFN6hq9plLM4BG0Xt4PRMygfwzyMHVrBhSGe8LiA6x9nOtNoQ_Yi8/s1600/election_results_2012.png" /></a><br />
<br />
And here is the map of prediction market forecasts <a href="http://thinkingonthemargin.blogspot.com/2012/10/prediction-markets-obama-wins-with-332.html">I posted on October 1st.</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha54tip1IaKYHdz62uN-8Zt_IexerzIDWxdkrxORJcseDJx3uAoCEt8_grWxnsSsSK_5O_m2QbTmvcnMxxlRfbmjNtg2Pj881wbyYf5LyZFi6-fsPNgW8z9BpSduOa11bqJbpq/s1600/electoral_map_2012.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha54tip1IaKYHdz62uN-8Zt_IexerzIDWxdkrxORJcseDJx3uAoCEt8_grWxnsSsSK_5O_m2QbTmvcnMxxlRfbmjNtg2Pj881wbyYf5LyZFi6-fsPNgW8z9BpSduOa11bqJbpq/s1600/electoral_map_2012.png" /></a><br />
<br />
Florida has yet to be called, but if it goes to Obama, then the prediction markets will have <b>accurately forecasted 50 out of 50 states five weeks before the election.</b><br />
<br />
Here is how the prediction markets fared in <a href="http://thinkingonthemargin.blogspot.com/2006/02/prediction-markets-for-2008.html">2004</a> and <a href="http://thinkingonthemargin.blogspot.com/2008/11/prediction-markets-how-did-they-do.html">2008</a>. I'd say they nailed it yet again!<br />
<br />
Read more of my posts on prediction markets <a href="http://thinkingonthemargin.blogspot.com/search/label/prediction%20markets">here</a>.Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-51486282613479446732012-11-05T23:53:00.004-05:002012-11-05T23:53:48.196-05:00One Last Look At Prediction Markets Before Tomorrow's Election<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiA4H3gWtARHrd7ywIx5BNAbvTRdFiFdhpxSRQGdDyyOaP7q13_ukMUh4_klKYgriPYCGpEpBKVMqNQBkNBPgTC4r1hQdaInaUSbNR8oFLzRGhGavR2rKkypjawaDWkbUOvnMFM/s1600/electoral_prediction_11_5_12.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiA4H3gWtARHrd7ywIx5BNAbvTRdFiFdhpxSRQGdDyyOaP7q13_ukMUh4_klKYgriPYCGpEpBKVMqNQBkNBPgTC4r1hQdaInaUSbNR8oFLzRGhGavR2rKkypjawaDWkbUOvnMFM/s1600/electoral_prediction_11_5_12.png" /></a><br />
<br />
This is the latest prediction for tomorrow's election on <a href="http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/electoral-map/">Intrade</a>. These predictions have been remarkably stable since <a href="http://thinkingonthemargin.blogspot.com/2012/10/prediction-markets-obama-wins-with-332.html">October 1st</a>, with only Florida changing from being likely to vote Democratic to now likely to vote Republican. Virginia and Colorado have shifted back and forth a bit over the past few weeks, but both are still predicted to go Democratic.<br />
<br />
It will be interesting to see the final tally tomorrow night and compare it to Intrade's forecast <a href="http://thinkingonthemargin.blogspot.com/2012/10/prediction-markets-obama-wins-with-332.html">over a month ago</a>. If this map matches the final outcomes tomorrow, Intrade will have accurately predicted 49 out of the 50 states one month before the election. <br />
<br />
Stay tuned!Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-707943729813227702012-11-05T23:30:00.001-05:002012-11-05T23:30:04.298-05:00How Powerful Is Your Vote?When it comes to voting, <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/map_of_the_week/2012/11/presidential_election_a_map_showing_the_vote_power_of_all_50_states.html">not all states are created equal.<br />
</a><br />
<iframe width='500' height='300' frameBorder='0' src='http://a.tiles.mapbox.com/v3/slate.201211-votepower.html#4/39.096/-94.3945'></iframe><br />
<br />
Garett Jones explains <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2012/10/why_i_love_the.html">why he loves the electoral college</a>. (For the record, I do too.)<br />
<br />
David Henderson explains <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2012/10/why_we_wont_eli.html">why it will never go away</a>.Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-27730281050697206212012-11-05T23:11:00.003-05:002012-11-05T23:11:42.975-05:00A Campaign Map, Morphed by MoneyA very cool <a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/11/01/163632378/a-campaign-map-morphed-by-money">animated infographic</a> by NPR on how the US would look if states were resized according to campaign spending. Follow the link for more info.<br />
<br />
<iframe width="600" height="338" src="http://www.npr.org/templates/event/embeddedVideo.php?storyId=163632378" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-30064968398866804262012-10-28T22:00:00.000-04:002012-10-28T22:09:13.853-04:00The Surprising Economics of Sex Ratios<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhloUhsRTDbZcyTEvWmARUImIShEsZgDLuQahH2KFu0ud1-uSzK8J5WZLE5wk7P_oQfZsjKUt6bbSdcXHsdLBEIZ14EZKRw3UGvUI9X9kfID2YCAUHE8jHmsZkAz9s0CRenp_K9/s1600/sex-ratio-chart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhloUhsRTDbZcyTEvWmARUImIShEsZgDLuQahH2KFu0ud1-uSzK8J5WZLE5wk7P_oQfZsjKUt6bbSdcXHsdLBEIZ14EZKRw3UGvUI9X9kfID2YCAUHE8jHmsZkAz9s0CRenp_K9/s1600/sex-ratio-chart.jpg" /></a></div><br />
Even romance follows <a href="http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2012/09/surprising-economics-sex-ratios/3291/">the laws of supply and demand:</a> <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>Griskevicius and company then asked the test participants to indicate how much they would spend on three romantic gestures: a Valentine's Day gift, a dinner date, and the purchase of an engagement ring. When test participants believed men outnumbered women in the population, they expected men to spend more money on the items. This was true of both male and female participants — suggesting that when men have more competition for mates, women become choosier and men attempt to out-spend any rivals.</i><br />
<br />
<i> The research has its limitations. For starters, financial and mating decisions are complicated processes whose outcomes are hard to reduce to any single factor. Beyond that, it seems reasonable to wonder whether most people even know the sex ratio of their cities — and you'd have to know that ratio to act on it. Timing also seems important here: sex ratios might cause men to spend more during courtship, but what about once they start a family? There's a lot more to consider.</i><br />
<i><br />
</i> <em> Still the theory is incredibly intriguing. In the <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982212008810">latest issue</a> of Current Biology, British researchers Aron Szekely of Oxford and Tamas Szekely of the University of Bath call the study "ground-breaking." The two Szekelys suggest that behavioral and population researchers develop models to assess how demographic shifts like sex ratio might influence consumer behavior. The theory might have a particularly ripe testing ground in China, which will soon have a male surplus of 40 million, for an overall sex ratio of 1.2 men to every woman. Break out your yuan, gentlemen.</em></blockquote>Read the whole thing. Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-45879551244035023142012-10-27T17:32:00.001-04:002012-10-27T22:21:03.373-04:00Who Really Benefits From Mortgage Interest Deductions?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD9_NEZDG2o8TLCgwK8zfJ4urxP64mqmN5XoZeORubOvREiLeWl9vtvUb2tYwPyMIoujTyKNbhWNffGH-ngxuqCKfkPxB21Ded9Bog93gkUHGEqMXUzoCY7Q1TOiayE9FykRlk/s1600/mortgage_break.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD9_NEZDG2o8TLCgwK8zfJ4urxP64mqmN5XoZeORubOvREiLeWl9vtvUb2tYwPyMIoujTyKNbhWNffGH-ngxuqCKfkPxB21Ded9Bog93gkUHGEqMXUzoCY7Q1TOiayE9FykRlk/s1600/mortgage_break.jpg" /></a></div>
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/realestate/mortgages-who-really-benefits-from-interest-deductions.html?_r=2"><br /></a>
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/realestate/mortgages-who-really-benefits-from-interest-deductions.html?_r=2">Lisa Prevost</a> writing for <i>The New York Times:</i><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>Real estate and building industry groups have loudly condemned proposals by both presidential campaigns to shrink the <a class="meta-classifier" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/your-money/loans/mortgages/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier" title="More articles about mortgages.">mortgage</a>
interest deduction. Central to their arguments is the long-hallowed
deduction’s value to the middle class. But a closer look at who benefits
suggests that this perception, though prevalent, is not accurate. </i><br />
<br />
<i>To begin with, most taxpayers do not benefit from the deduction at all.
This is because they do not itemize deductions on their federal income
tax returns. According to Joseph Rosenberg, a research associate at the <a href="http://www.urban.org/index.cfm">Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center</a>,
only about 30 percent of taxpayers itemize, rather than take the
standard deduction. And the majority of these itemizers are upper-middle
and upper-income households...</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
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<i>
The other factor is that the value of the subsidy increases along with your tax bracket.</i></div>
</blockquote>
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Read the whole thing.</div>
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The mortgage deduction is a policy that distorts the actual value of a home, making it look more valuable than it economically is. This leads to an over-consumption of housing an over-provision of single family homes in the economy. The poor are not only those who are least able to afford homes, but also are in the lowest tax bracket, receiving very little benefit from the mortgage deduction. As Prevost writes in her article, the tax benefits are mostly enjoyed by the wealthy.</div>
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Harvard's <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Triumph-City-Greatest-Invention-Healthier/dp/159420277X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1350249038&sr=8-1&keywords=triumph+of+the+city">Ed Glaeser</a> notes that the mortgage deduction contributes to suburban sprawl by incentivizing people to own when, but for price distortions due to tax policies, they might be better off renting a smaller home in or nearer to a city. This has huge ramifications on losses in productivity and well-being from time wasted commuting, environmental impact from lowered access to public transportation and additional miles driven, and lessened economies of scale on services in the suburbs relative to cities. The mortgage deduction also incentivizes people to purchase larger homes than they otherwise would, again leading to a waste of resources in building, heating, cooling, and maintaining overly-large houses. As Glaeser points out in his book, if other countries like China and India suburbanize the way the United States has, it could lead to large global increases in carbon emissions and the demand for oil.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbf4mvfUuxRxNH-8LZIXKSwxid5HVdnCTnDnxDD9NyG8gzCQ7ZEw1yBuW_G4SjJX8zTe3AiKpHGnN4EjcWEKLSvnJzZk6EIm-4vxzV0Ng6e7gt6vNkZksx_Tfc7857QUsVckUA/s1600/negative-externality.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbf4mvfUuxRxNH-8LZIXKSwxid5HVdnCTnDnxDD9NyG8gzCQ7ZEw1yBuW_G4SjJX8zTe3AiKpHGnN4EjcWEKLSvnJzZk6EIm-4vxzV0Ng6e7gt6vNkZksx_Tfc7857QUsVckUA/s1600/negative-externality.png" /></a></div>
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I have recently been teaching my microeconomics class about <a href="http://economics.fundamentalfinance.com/positive-externality.php">positive externalities</a> and <a href="http://economics.fundamentalfinance.com/negative-externality.php">negative externalities</a>. If suburban living has as many negative externalities as Glaeser believes, maybe home ownership should be taxed rather than subsidized? At a minimum, the mortgage tax deduction is a policy that seems to have little justification from either the perspective of economics or equality.<br />
<br />
<i>(HT <a href="http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2012/10/ny-times--1.html">TaxProf Blog</a>) </i></div>
Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-54731079947506657422012-10-26T08:43:00.001-04:002012-10-26T08:43:06.374-04:00Latest Prediction Market Forecast<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqylgor-Kkl0bUFGNhqMBMPXs6lUxcGrF_o8Zghjs3xH_uDqvtEmrpgu39Yi0QuTH2u_JdgvsfqMO_qawEFZN4gwkwooIhXtDsCvFDcXwyW21x-7rZxbnIRChs6qLXyY7ED1D7/s1600/Screen+Shot+2012-10-26+at+8.33.16+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqylgor-Kkl0bUFGNhqMBMPXs6lUxcGrF_o8Zghjs3xH_uDqvtEmrpgu39Yi0QuTH2u_JdgvsfqMO_qawEFZN4gwkwooIhXtDsCvFDcXwyW21x-7rZxbnIRChs6qLXyY7ED1D7/s1600/Screen+Shot+2012-10-26+at+8.33.16+AM.png" /></a></div>
See live updates on <a href="http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/electoral-map/">Intrade</a>. Compared to the <a href="http://thinkingonthemargin.blogspot.com/2012/10/prediction-markets-obama-wins-with-332.html">forecast on October 1st</a> (before any of the presidential debates), Florida has switched from Democrat to Republican and Colorado and Virginia are now very close (both formerly predicted to vote for Obama). Obama's overall chance of winning is <a href="http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/">currently predicted to be 61.9%</a>. <br />
<br />
Read my previous posts on <a href="http://thinkingonthemargin.blogspot.com/search/label/prediction%20markets">prediction markets</a>.Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-56811092497281480152012-10-17T12:32:00.001-04:002012-10-17T12:32:10.918-04:00What Would Life Be Like Without Capitalism?<iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/bwH3Xr6uyG0" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
<i>(HT <a href="http://www.coordinationproblem.org/2012/10/life-without-capitalism.html">Pete Boettke</a>)</i>Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22020163.post-23591838155527982482012-10-15T14:33:00.001-04:002012-10-15T14:54:27.555-04:00This Year's Nobel Prize for Economic Engineering<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmGIeLsJFFd9F_wS2mmOKyqmkHvvR7EmqmV5qSa-PYXyl4_S8D8FnheUNW7HlQQAAYVxpccvpIOHPDt65w-EySzHhkQZA7jAE_eMxD-qTxSyo3sjFXXYgXLkseyWo1CJ_K2WHg/s1600/Roth.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmGIeLsJFFd9F_wS2mmOKyqmkHvvR7EmqmV5qSa-PYXyl4_S8D8FnheUNW7HlQQAAYVxpccvpIOHPDt65w-EySzHhkQZA7jAE_eMxD-qTxSyo3sjFXXYgXLkseyWo1CJ_K2WHg/s320/Roth.jpg" width="225" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuxTV3kuVpiH5cQ9JXuAPEQSeDxq-Cdl7hovdLjieOHz-e9nJwOsclIP6Jo4pfxeBPj1-0MSEtM60GH5IIUfTWKuhqF1XF4gceuCjnCgxvV8eCG2IoFGuREhe37pUmaOsuRzq4/s1600/shapley.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuxTV3kuVpiH5cQ9JXuAPEQSeDxq-Cdl7hovdLjieOHz-e9nJwOsclIP6Jo4pfxeBPj1-0MSEtM60GH5IIUfTWKuhqF1XF4gceuCjnCgxvV8eCG2IoFGuREhe37pUmaOsuRzq4/s320/shapley.jpg" width="225" /></a>Congratulations to Al Roth and Lloyd Shapley for <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/16/business/economy/alvin-roth-and-lloyd-shapley-win-nobel-in-economic-science.html?_r=0&pagewanted=all">winning the Nobel Prize in Economics this morning</a> for their work in market design and matching theory (emphasis mine):<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>[Their work relates] to how people and companies find and select one another in everything from marriage to school choice to jobs to organ donations.</i> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
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<i> Their work primarily relates to markets that do not have prices, or at least have strict constraints on prices. In classical economics, prices are the main mechanism through which resources are allocated. <b>The laureates’ breakthroughs involve figuring out how to properly assign people and things to stable matches when prices are not available to help buyers and sellers pair up. </b></i></div>
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<i>Mr. Roth, 60, has put these theories to practical use, in his work on a program that matches new doctors to hospitals and more recently for a project matching up kidney donors. Public school systems in New York, Boston, Chicago and Denver, among other cities, use an algorithm based on his work to help assign students to schools. A <a href="http://kuznets.fas.harvard.edu/~aroth/alroth.html">professor at Harvard</a>, he recently accepted a <a href="http://chronicle.com/article/Stanford-Lures-3-Top/132317/" title="Article on his appointment at Stanford.">new position</a> at Stanford... </i></div>
<br />
<i>Mr. Shapley, 89, a mathematician and economist long associated with game theory, is a <a href="http://www.econ.ucla.edu/shapley/index.html" title="Mr. Shapley’s university Web page.">professor emeritus at the University of California, Los Angeles</a>. He made some of the earliest theoretical contributions to research on market design and matching, in the 1950s and 1960s. He looked at why, in a free market, it was sometimes difficult for individuals to come to an agreement about proper matches. </i></blockquote>
Read the whole thing.<br />
<br />
I originally considered using the <a href="http://thinkingonthemargin.blogspot.com/2010/04/gale-shapley-matching-model.html">Gale-Shapley matching model</a> for the foundation of my research on marriage markets. While I ended up eventually going with a more Beckerian approach, it was a great introduction to market design literature and of much help in my work on <a href="http://thinkingonthemargin.blogspot.com/search/label/agent%20based%20modeling">agent-based models</a>.<br />
<br />
Try out this <a href="http://mathsite.math.berkeley.edu/smp/smp.html">animated demonstration of how the Gale-Shapley model works</a>. Here is <a href="http://sephlietz.com/gale-shapley/">more analytical version</a>. Wikipedia has a nice write up of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stable_marriage_problem">stable marriage problem</a>. Read Gale-Shapley's <a href="http://www.econ.ucsb.edu/%7Etedb/Courses/Ec100C/galeshapley.pdf">original paper on matching markets</a>, which is a highly accessible.<br />
<br />
Be sure to check out <a href="http://kuznets.fas.harvard.edu/~aroth/alroth.html">Roth's webpage on game theory, experimental economics, and market design</a>. And also see his blog, <a href="http://marketdesigner.blogspot.com/">Market Design</a>. As far as I know, Roth is the first academic blogger to win the Nobel Prize. (Paul Krugman is also a blogger, but to a more general audience.)<br />
<br />
Alex Tabarrok has a some great commentary on <a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/10/noble-matching.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+marginalrevolution%2Ffeed+%28Marginal+Revolution%29">the importance of Roth's and Shapley's work</a>.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0809/opinions-harvard-alvin-roth-freakonomics-ideas-opinions.html">Forbes has a profile of Roth</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd_Shapley">Wikipedia of Shapley</a>. <i>(HT <a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/10/nobel-prizes-al-roth-and-lloyd-shapley.html">Tyler Cowen</a>) </i><br />
<br />
See is the <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2012/press.html">official Nobel Prize webpage</a> announcing the prize. <br />
<br />
More thoughts on today's prize from <a href="http://www.freakonomics.com/2012/10/15/al-roth-takes-home-the-nobel-prize/">Seven Levitt</a> and <a href="http://organizationsandmarkets.com/2012/10/15/market-design/">Peter Klein</a>.<br />
<br />
So what exactly does it take to win a Nobel Prize? Some suspect it might have <a href="http://www.bakadesuyo.com/2012/10/connection-eating-chocolate-winning-nobel-prize/">something to do with eating lots of chocolate...</a>Brian Hollarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00694444396412628374noreply@blogger.com2